Today: Why are younger men increasingly voting for the populist right and younger women, the environmental left? Rosie Campbell on a new gender divide in the Western world.

+ What happened to the German economy? What we’re tracking for this week’s member’s despatch. & New music from Anthony Naples …

Divergence

The discrepancy isn’t unique to the U.K. In Sweden, the conservative-nationalist Sweden Democrats have nearly three times more supporters among men than among women. In the United States, exit polls from last year’s presidential election show 55 percent of men voted for Donald Trump, while only 45 percent of women did. For years, as Daniel Cox has discussed here in The Signal, more and more young American men have been questioning whether the government plays too big a role in their lives—and too big a role in promoting systemic biases against them—while women are becoming, Cox says, “increasingly liberal.” And the trend extends across the West: The political outlooks of men and women—particularly men and women in the Millennials and Z generations—are becoming increasingly polarized.

Why?

Rosie Campbell is a professor of politics at King’s College London. Campbell says that ever since the populist right emerged as a real force in Western politics some two decades ago, the parties representing it have relied heavily on the support of older men. Now, something new is happening: These same parties have started winning more votes from younger men, as younger women move more toward left-wing and environmentally focused parties. Meanwhile, younger men now think the future will be worse for men. And women think it’ll be worse for women. There’s something going on with the political outlook of young men and women, Campbell says—something that goes beyond their voting patterns …

‘Unknown territory’

The country hasn’t seen significant growth in half a decade, since recovery from the pandemic. In 2024, Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.2 percent; in 2023, it shrank by 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, key sectors like the car industry have fallen behind their global competitors. Automakers in Germany produced 5.65 million cars in 2017 but only 4.1 million in 2023. Volkswagen, for instance, has slashed wages and has said it will lay off 35,000 workers by the end of the decade.

Germany used to be Europe’s economic powerhouse.

What happened?

• The Duterte family remains beloved throughout the Philippines. When Duterte turned 80 in March, the ICC had to use a van to bring all the flowers sent to him; he received three bags of mail. Some Filipinos still say he’s the best president their country ever had.
• His son Sebastian won as vice mayor of Davao and will serve in his father’s place for the time being, the family says. At least seven Dutertes won races in national elections on May 5. Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter Sara is vice president of the country, but she was impeached in February.
• The Dutertes are battling for political control of the Philippines against another family dynasty, the Marcoses. President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos is the son of the former president of the same name. Marcos and Sara Duterte campaigned together for president and vice president, winning office in 2022, but have fallen out since.

The enduring popularity of the Duterte and Marcos families is partly on account of the enduring appeal of the populist style of politics and its narratives about good citizens victimized by corrupt elites. Rodrigo Duterte, for instance, has long said that international drug rings are working with corrupt Philippine politicians and police officials to destroy the country. The electoral wins for candidates backed by the Dutertes and Marcoses raise a question about whether any political force can break their grip on power. Some results from May 5 show that a slate of candidates opposing both families did better than expected—though today, it still looks like someone named either Duterte or Marcos will be the next president in 2028.

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