| ◼ Donald Trump says kids may have to make do with fewer toys because of his trade war, and it’s lucky for Republicans they can’t vote.
◼ Trump has set a new standard for a president’s first 100 days. His successors may well promise to replicate his frenetic activity. What we’ve gotten from Trump so far is a mixed bag. The unalloyed goods: reversing the Biden agenda, ending the border crisis, sanity on transgender issues, consequential moves against DEI and race-conscious policies, hitting the Houthis, speaking forthrightly about the Gaza war. The directionally correct, if poorly executed: DOGE, gang deportations, the fight with Harvard. The indefensible: targeting law firms and individuals for purposes of revenge, blaming Ukraine for the Russian invasion. And the terrible: the trade war that threatens the economy and his presidency. Perhaps most disturbing in the first 100 days has been Trump’s penchant for personal rule achieved by stretching grants of power by Congress to their limits and beyond. We should all be grateful that Kamala Harris is largely forgotten. But it has been a wild ride to this point, and there are many more ups and downs ahead.
◼ The GDP data for the three months just passed are an unusually unreliable guide to what lies ahead. Imports had an enormous surge in the first quarter as importers shipped in supplies before the tariff ratchet turned further. Something similar lies behind purchases of capital equipment and strong car sales, the latter a standout amid relatively subdued consumer spending growth (1.8 percent). Fast-forwarding spending, or stockpiling, is like pulling down the shutters ahead of a hurricane. The data suggest that businesses and consumers anticipate that this particular hurricane may be much worse than they originally feared. It is not what the dawn of a “golden age” is meant to look like.
◼ UPS plans to close 73 buildings and eliminate 20,000 jobs this year. In its earnings call, CEO Carol Tomé said the company aims to reduce its costs by $3.5 billion in 2025 and, by the middle of next year, to halve its volume of Amazon deliveries, many of which have been unprofitable. Most of the layoffs will be of employees who sort and deliver packages and are represented by the Teamsters, whose president, Sean O’Brien, said that UPS was breaking a commitment to create 30,000 union jobs. A spokesman for the company denied it. Adding to the gloomy outlook is increased competition from smaller carriers and direct delivery by Walmart, Target, and other retailers. The headwinds also affect UPS’s main competitor, FedEx, which recently announced layoffs and closures in several locations across the U.S. Commenting on the impact of new tariffs, Tomé, clear-eyed, noted that “the world hasn’t been faced with such enormous potential impacts to trade in more than 100 years.”
◼ After a report that Amazon was planning to show the cost of any Trump tariff as a separate line item for prices on its site, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was quick to complain. With Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent standing by her side, she denounced the move as a “hostile and political act.” Amazon clarified that it had only been considering detailing some tariff charges on Amazon Haul, a part of its website dedicated to selling ultracheap items, but had decided not to go ahead after an irritated President Trump got on the phone to Jeff Bezos. High tariff regimes, as we are seeing, can lead to unhealthily close involvement by government in a company’s business. We were also disappointed that Trump did not appear to take more pride in his tariff regime. Setting out the full cost of a tariff is a good way to encourage consumers to buy American. Isn’t that what the president wants?
◼ The conventional wisdom said that National Security Adviser Mike Waltz would be ousted after a decent interval for his precipitating role in the Signal debacle, and the conventional wisdom was right. The hawkish former Republican congressman was a good, stabilizing voice in a White House susceptible to isolationist influence and Trump’s own whims. But the fat-fingered Signal chat was a major embarrassment and Waltz, who was distrusted and targeted by restrainers from the outset, saw his standing erode further. A couple of weeks ago, the provocateur Laura Loomer forced the firing of some of his aides. Wounded and exposed, Waltz was inevitably hunted down on the bureaucratic Serengeti. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be his replacement in the interim while keeping his other jobs. Trump could do worse in his eventual pick for national security adviser than either Waltz or Rubio, and we fear he will. Waltz will now be ambassador to the U.N., its use as a punishment being an apt illustration of the position’s futility.
◼ The Department of Justice indicted Wisconsin judge Hannah Dugan for obstruction after she helped an illegal alien try to evade arrest by federal agents at her Milwaukee courthouse. It should be an open-and-shut case: Judge Dugan was advised that the feds were outside her courtroom waiting to arrest Eduardo Flores-Ruiz, a Mexican who reentered the U.S. after being deported a dozen years ago (a felony that makes him administratively deportable without court proceedings). He was in Dugan’s court on criminal charges of beating two victims, who were in court for plea discussions. While federal agents met with the courthouse’s chief judge to discuss arrest logistics, Dugan escorted Flores-Ruiz and his lawyer through a jury-room corridor inaccessible to the public, so he could try to evade arrest, but an agent saw him and chased him down. Alas, the matter is complicated: Under state sanctuary policies, the feds may not commandeer state officials to enforce immigration law; officials need not assist but may not impede. And the Supreme Court’s 2024 immunity ruling in favor of Trump casts doubt on whether officials, like Dugan, can be prosecuted for abusive actions arguably within the scope of their duties. At any trial of Dugan, the jury of her peers would be Milwaukeeans—the folks who voted for sanctuary policies. |