Why I’m Okay with Some of the Secondary Tariffs

+

You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs

by Peter Zeihan on April 7, 2025

We’re less than a week out from the next Live Q&A!

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the ‘Analyst tier’ on Patreon before April 9.

You can join the Patreon page at the link below!

LINK FOR THE PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/peterzeihan

Why I’m Okay with Some of the Secondary Tariffs

On March 25, President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on purchases of Venezuelan crude. There’s a lot going on with this one, so let’s cover the micro and macro.

According to how the framers wrote the constitution, authority over tariffs—like much of trade—sat with Congress. Second, Venezuelan crude typically hits the US to be processed by our specialized refineries. So, this tariff is just raising costs for US refiners instead of directly hurting Venezuela. Unless of course you ignore all that and simply apply the tariff wherever you want.

Regardless of how many holes can be poked in these moves, the broader reality is that globalization is ending, and the US will need some new economic tools to face that change. As clumsy and unstructured as it is, at least the US gets to put some new tools through the ringer before they have to take the big stage.

Please click below to watch today’s video

YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/uF6_AACp5C8

You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs

Well, it finally happened. Word got back to President Trump that Putin and the Russians were making a fool of him in their negotiations and peace talks, so the obvious next step is to throw some more tariffs at them…

This would be accomplished with 25-50% secondary tariffs placed on the US exports of countries who still buy Russian crude – primarily China. Total up all of the tariffs coming down on China after April 2nd, and they could be looking at over 100% tariffs. So, those Chinese electronics and other imports risk becoming a lot more expensive in the near future. There’s no quick replacement for China’s supply chains either, which means high prices and tariff-driven inflation will be hitting consumers hard for a while.

The worst part of all this tariff minutiae is that it won’t change how the Russians interface with the world. It just ups the pressure on Russia’s key suppliers, like China, Iran, and North Korea. As I said in my secondary tariff video the other day, at least we’re going to see if secondary tariffs can be an effective tool for us in the coming deglobalized world.

Please click below to watch today’s video

YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/FCe7xOTEv7Y

We appreciate the interest and engagement from our followers, but with Peter’s travel schedule and sheer volume of requests, we are unable to answer non-business-related questions via e-mail. Use the ‘Ask Peter’ page below for your video topics, ideas and burning questions…

follow me on socials

To make sure you get our emails, please add our email address to your saved contacts or Whitelist.