Geopolitics

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Recently: What’s Beijing’s strategy for dealing with Donald Trump? Scott Kennedy on where China sees the threats and opportunities from the new U.S. administration.

Today—from our latest print extra, Altered States: How common is the corruption of public officials in the U.S.? Ben Freeman on what America’s “authoritarian friends” from the Persian Gulf are doing in Washington, D.C.

+ We may be living inside a black hole; from the member’s despatch, Vali Nasr on the repercussions of Iran’s new weakness in a transformed Middle East; &c.

But first …

DEVELOPMENTS
Massive demonstrations in Türkiye
The biggest protests in a decade have broken out in Türkiye, after the government arrested the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, who was almost certain to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the next presidential election. What’s this all about?

  • Demonstrations broke out on March 19, when Turkish authorities announced charges against İmamoğlu. The largest protests took place on March 23, with some reports saying tens of thousands across the country had taken to the streets. Police have used pepper spray, tear gas, and water cannons against the protesters—and say they’ve arrested more than 1,100 people since March 17. Ten journalists have apparently been taken into custody, too.
  • On March 23, İmamoğlu’s party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), held its primaries for the presidential nomination; his name was the only one on the ballot. The CHP says that more than 13.2 million Turks cast sympathy votes for İmamoğlu, in addition to almost 1.7 million party members. That’s about 1 million votes more than the CHP received in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Some polls had shown İmamoğlu leading Erdoğan in a head-to-head matchup for the presidency. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s spokesperson called the arrest “totally unacceptable,” as critics of Erdoğan say the country is falling into complete autocracy.
  • Erdoğan says the protests had turned into a “movement for violence”—and government officials say that İmamoğlu’s arrest shows no one is above the law and the country’s courts are independent. İmamoğlu has been charged with corruption and supporting pro-Kurdish terrorism. Turkish authorities are encouraging the public to let justice run its course. On March 23, Erdoğan said, “Let me say it loud and clear: The street protests … are a dead end.”
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Snap elections in Canada
Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, has called elections for April 28, saying Canadians are facing “the most significant crisis of our lifetime because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.” What’s happened here?

  • U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said Canada should become the 51st U.S. state—and repeatedly referred to Canada’s former prime minister, Justin Trudeau, as “Governor,” in reference to the title of elected leaders in U.S. states. The Trump administration placed 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and Trump has threatened to place new levies on all Canadian imports starting on April 2.
  • The U.S. moves have led to a lot of hostility among Canadians. Both the country’s major political parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, have rejected joining the U.S. out of hand and have thoroughly criticized Trump’s trade moves against Ottawa.
  • Carney’s ascension to the leadership of the Liberal Party on March 9—and his relentless opposition to Trump—have vaulted the Liberals back into the lead in polling. The Conservatives had long been comfortably ahead, but that was largely thanks to Trudeau’s unpopularity. It was also before Trump took office and suggested annexing the country.
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A major shift in Sudan’s civil war
The Sudanese military captured control of the presidential palace in Khartoum on March 21, dislodging soldiers from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had seized the place not long after the outbreak of civil war in April 2023. By Sunday, military troops had taken control of most of central Khartoum, including the Central Bank and the headquarters of the intelligence service. How’d they do it?

  • The military has made steady advances against the RSF for the past few months and had surrounded Khartoum from the north and south.
  • But the RSF still controls Western Sudan, including the Darfur region, and is attempting to set up government institutions in the areas under its control—though these institutions are unlikely to win international recognition.
  • Both sides get weapons and money from an array of outside actors, including Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. UN officials say the conflict has created the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world today. The war has now killed more than 28,000, though some estimates suggest a much higher death toll. Millions have been displaced from their homes, and some families appear to be eating grass to survive famine in parts of the country. Evidence suggests both sides have committed war crimes; last year, the U.S. State Department accused the RSF of committing genocide in Darfur.
FEATURE

Broad daylight

How common is the corruption of public officials in the U.S.? Ben Freeman on what America’s “authoritarian friends” from the Persian Gulf are doing in Washington, D.C.
Sister Mary
In late spring last year, a Texas grand jury indicted Henry Cuellar, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and his wife, Imelda, on charges of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from the Republic of Azerbaijan and a Mexican commercial bank. A couple of months later, a New York jury convicted Bob Menendez, the former chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, also for accepting bribes— including hundreds of thousands in cash, 13 bars of gold, and a Mercedes-Benz convertible—from Egyptian officials, Qatari officials, and three New Jersey businessmen. “This wasn’t politics as usual,” said Damian Williams, an attorney for the Southern District of New York. “This was politics for profit.” A couple of months later, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted New York City’s mayor, Eric Adams, for taking more than $100,000 worth of personal bribes and millions in illegal campaign contributions from Turkish officials and companies. How much of this sort of corruption is there in America?

Ben Freeman is the director of the Democratizing Foreign Policy Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of The Foreign Policy Auction. Freeman says these cases are about as exceptional as they are spectacular. Of course, they’re verybad, betraying the public interest while burning public trust. But they’re unusual—not just in that the officials who get involved in them tend to be so remarkably arrogant and incompetent, but in that the criminal conspiracies themselves are so marginal to foreign-influence operations in the United States overall. Every year, foreign interests—many of them autocracies, with priorities starkly at odds with the mores of American democracy—spend hundreds of millions of dollars on these operations, through lobbying and public-relations firms, think tanks and universities, even sports franchises. And it’s all legal. But it can be difficult for most Americans to care about it, because it’s still so difficult to see …

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MEANWHILE
  • Researchers at Kansas State University analyzed 263 galaxies using James Webb Space Telescope data and found most were rotating in the same direction. This observation supports black-hole-cosmology theory, which suggests our universe exists inside a black hole from another, larger universe.
ELSEWHERE
  • Tired of waking up to an inbox full of sensationalist headlines and negative stories? Stay informed without the drama, with the Donut. It’s quick, engaging, nonpartisan, and free. Sign up here.
CONNECTIONS

That other conflict

Why is the U.S. bombing in Yemen? Vali Nasr on the repercussions of Iran’s new weakness in a transformed Middle East.
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Coming soon: Daniel Schlozman on why the U.S. Democrats’ fairly modest election loss is so devastating …
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