by Peter Zeihan on January 21, 2025

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Next in our Trump 2.0 list, we have Iran. This is one of those countries that is quite isolated from the US, so Trump can have a bit more fun with his policies.

Places like Russia and China are complex and require jumping through hoops to have anything stick. Naturally, Trump’s big-talk-no-walk strategy didn’t work so well against these powers, but Iran is different. The country is isolated from the US and the risk of blowback from actions against them is limited.

So, in his first term, Trump put the pressure on Iran by cutting off oil exports. However, they quickly developed a “shadow fleet” to circumvent that. Trump’s next step would be to impose secondary sanctions to disrupt the “shadow fleet”. There’s the option to involve the military with blockades, but that risks destabilizing the global maritime system.

Until Trump and his administration show the capacity to come up with policies that manage the fallout of any new actions against Iran, let’s hope that Trump doesn’t start swinging his sledgehammer too hard.

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YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/rV7tdjXbY84

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