by Peter Zeihan on January 17, 2025

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Next on our list of things Trump 2.0 will have to deal with is NATO. Trump’s second term could reshape NATO dynamics, with a significant focus on defense spending, China, and European alliances.

Trump will try to push NATO members to significantly increase defense spending, up to 4-5% of GDP. Trump will also attempt to align NATO against Chinese trade practices. These efforts will be occurring as European dynamics undergo a shift of their own.

European security concerns are on the rise due to the Ukraine war. Eastern Europe is being led by Poland with strong defense spending and alignment with the US. In Scandinavia, these countries exhibit stable demographics and effective militaries, which make them reliable US allies. France and Germany will struggle with Trump 2.0’s demands for increased spending, since they are facing industrial shifts, energy crises, and demographic decline. An ally closer to home who might get some heat from Trump is Canada, who has been relying on US trade and spending very little on defense.

As geopolitical shifts take place across the globe, Trump 2.0 will be looking to squeeze NATO members for a bit more. This will likely strengthen ties with some countries, and strain it with others…

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YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/pCXm0vpMaTE

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