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Not unusually, U.S. journalists have been trying to predict what numbers like these mean for the presidential election in November. But the “predictive style in American journalism,” as the Signal contributor James Fallows has referred to it, has reliably come up short. In 2022, it assumed a “red wave” of Republican victories that never materialized. Before that, in 2016, it failed to anticipate a Trump victory that did. This isn’t just because polling is complicated—in ways journalistic narratives often aren’t; it’s also because voter turnout—the question of what groups of people end up casting ballots in U.S. elections—keeps shifting in unpredictable ways. This November, women might indeed turn out in record numbers—or not. So, what can we know about turnout at all?

Jan Leighley is a professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C. Leighley says, in some ways, the profile of American voters has been stable for a long time: Wealthier and more educated people consistently vote at high rates, for instance. But there have also been changes to the profile in recent years: Not only has the electorate been getting more female, for example; it’s been getting older and less white. And yet, while the number of Latinos in America has grown, the proportion of Latinos in America who vote has historically been low—though that too could be changing in ways that won’t be visible until after the election. Voting patterns, Leighley says, are far more complicated than what often comes across in the U.S. news media—not least because, while politicians care more about voters than nonvoters, most people don’t really care about politics …

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• “There are more Latinos in the U.S. than there used to be, but there’s also a low level of mobilization among them—especially in California and Texas, where there haven’t been many efforts to organize them. True, there’ve been more in recent years, but Latino turnout still lags—for a few reasons: There’s the language barrier. There’s poverty. There’s the fact that some people who’ve come to the U.S. from Central America haven’t been socialized in a democracy, so they’re used to more passive roles as citizens. Learning how to engage in American elections can be a challenge.”
• “States with higher percentages of voters in low-income groups tend to offer more generous welfare benefits. If people who’re potentially eligible for welfare benefits come to the polls, elected officials will be more likely to provide those benefits. This dynamic is especially pronounced when it comes to certain highly publicized issues—Obama’s Affordable Care Act, for instance, which got health insurance to people who previously couldn’t afford it. It’s an example of how voting matters. Which is, broadly speaking, that voting matters because politicians cater to the interests of their supporters. As president, Joe Biden has made an issue of living wages. Now, he may believe that people should be paid a living wage—but he also knows his voters believe that, too.”
• “If you pay a lot of attention to politics, it’s easy to forget—the link between politics and people is weak. Typically, they don’t care about it. It’s just so far removed from what they’re dealing with in their daily lives—with jobs and families, and health, and all manner of things. So, why should they care enough to vote? In the academy or in the media, it may be easy to think the question is, Why don’t people vote? But it’s really, Why would they? I might often read a couple of newspapers, watch a few news shows, spend some time with others who’re also interested in politics. You might, too. But that’s just not how most people live. Do most people want to spend an evening doing background research on candidates? Probably not. They’re probably winding down from a long day and would rather watch something good on Netflix.”

That’s why we look at it the way a detective would: Everything The Signal does starts with good questions, and every answer leads us to more of them.

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A waiting game in Tehran

Pezeshkian says Iran is holding back on retaliation because it doesn’t want the war in Gaza to escalate into a wider conflict. And yet Iran’s proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen—continue to launch rocket and missile attacks on Israel.

On September 17, hundreds of Hezbollah pagers exploded in Lebanon and Syria, killing 11 and wounding more than 2,700—including Iran’s envoy to Beirut—according to Lebanon’s health minister. The next day, hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies also exploded, killing 25 and injuring hundreds. Reports indicate Israel had managed to implant tiny explosives in the devices, which could then be detonated remotely.

In April this year, after Israel bombed Tehran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing several military commanders, Iran responded by launching some 300 missiles against Israel—though Israel managed to intercept nearly all of them.

So why is Tehran not taking revenge this time?

It may be uncertain, but as Vali Nasr explored in February, Iran is quite happy with much of the status quo in the region—and it sees itself as gaining prominence and power from the Gaza war. To Tehran’s leaders, Nasr says, the conflict has turned global public opinion against Israel and the U.S.—and caused a lot of friction between the longtime allies. Now and in the near future, Tel Aviv and Washington will have to spend a lot of time and energy dealing with Hamas and the Palestinian question—leaving less time and energy to focus on whatever Iran is up to.

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