◼ These are not great times for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, which has long since lost the across-the-map leads it held against Joe Biden. In national polling, Kamala Harris now holds a steady lead of nearly two points in the RealClearPolitics average and a three-point edge in the FiveThirtyEight average. Harris has pulled ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, inched past Trump in Georgia and Nevada, and closed to small gaps in North Carolina and Arizona. Pennsylvania seems a dead heat. Given that we are in the aftermath of the Democrats’ convention, however, this is not necessarily where Harris wants to be, either. She probably needs a three-point margin nationally to win the key states. If Trump wins North Carolina and Pennsylvania, he needs only to win Georgia or to win Arizona and Nevada; in either case, Michigan and Wisconsin are not must-win states for him. The endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the looming presidential debate could further shift the race. And recall that Trump is still polling better now than he did at this point in 2016 or 2020. If Trump just squeaks by, however, he’s unlikely to have coattails in the many key Senate races where Republicans are running behind him. Expect a lot more slugging and slogging.

◼ After extensive negotiations, Trump and Harris have agreed to one debate, scheduled for September 10 on ABC. Harris insisted that Trump adhere to the original schedule agreed with Joe Biden (over Trump’s desire for additional debates). But she also demanded that a Trump–Biden debate rule be revised so that the candidates’ microphones would stay on while the other candidate was talking. This says much about both candidates. Trump’s campaign, which insisted on muting (sometimes without the candidate’s clear support), understood that he can’t control his mouth well enough to avoid interrupting Harris; Harris wanted a viral moment where she could tell Trump “I’m speaking” and posture as the icon of every woman interrupted by a man. She probably already had the T-shirts printed: Her campaigns in the past have rolled out merchandise immediately to capitalize on similarly pre-scripted lines. We can’t say we’re exactly looking forward to the debate, but it’s better that some degree of order will be imposed on it.

◼ Trump has struggled to navigate the issue of abortion on the campaign trail, alternately courting pro-lifers’ votes and accusing them of dragging down the GOP’s political prospects. But as a Florida resident, he will be voting on an upcoming referendum to overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban and to institute an abortion right that extends throughout pregnancy. At the end of August, he said he opposed the six-week ban and would vote accordingly—which implied a yes vote. Pro-life and socially conservative activists, even some who had ignored or excused previous Trump provocations, were white-hot in outrage. Trump then said he would vote no on the referendum because it is too sweeping. This subplot in the 2024 race demonstrates, among other things, that conservatives shouldn’t be shy about telling Trump where he has gone wrong.

◼ Mike Gallagher is the kind of politician the Republican Party, or any party, should prize: bright, earnest, conscientious, etc. For seven years, he served as an intelligence officer in the Marine Corps. He was twice deployed to Iraq. A conservative Republican from Wisconsin, he served four terms in the U.S. House, or just short of that. He resigned in April. He had been the chairman of the Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, a committee devoted to an extremely important subject. He stayed in Congress just long enough to vote for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. He bowed out at age 39. Why? Gallagher has talked to David Ignatius of the Washington Post, in a series of interviews. The long and the short of it: the threat of violence—against him and his family—from people angered at his deviations from a Trump line. There is a sickness in our politics, one that the decisions to depart of Gallagher and his like will only worsen.

◼ Tucker Carlson—who spoke prominently at the Republican National Convention, advises Trump’s campaign, and is scheduled to appear on stage with J. D. Vance later this month—has made himself famous in recent years for “just asking questions.” Carlson hosted revisionist-history podcaster Darryl Cooper on his interview show on Twitter/X, saying he “may be the best and most honest popular historian” in America. Cooper went on to expound his view that Winston Churchill was the “chief villain” of the Second World War, primarily on the basis of the fact that Churchill rejected Adolf Hitler’s peace feelers and kept Britain fighting the Nazi tyranny even after the fall of France. And Churchill, wouldn’t you know, was motivated to fight Germany not to protect British liberty but because he was a “psychopath” and perhaps even bought off by Zionist financiers. After an uproar, Cooper doubled down in a long, rambling tweet storm in which he insisted that Hitler had only wanted peace with Britain and “an acceptable solution to the Jewish problem.” The interview has rocketed Cooper’s formerly obscure podcast to the top of the charts. Is Carlson off his rocker, seeking the viewership of those who are, or both? Just asking.

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◼ After Israeli forces discovered the bodies of six hostages Hamas had murdered, including American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, President Biden warned, “Make no mistake, Hamas leaders will pay for these crimes.” Yet by the next morning, Biden told reporters that Israel wasn’t doing enough to secure a cease-fire and that his administration was working toward a new “final” deal that would no doubt provide more concessions to Hamas—in effect, rewarding the terrorist group for its latest acts of brutality. Forty-five Americans were killed by Hamas in the October 7 attacks, and eight were taken hostage (in addition to Goldberg-Polin, three other American hostages are believed to be dead). Hamas’s murder of Goldberg-Polin should be treated as not merely an issue of concern for Israel but a brazen act against the United States.

◼ “When we speak about our energy, we have to produce our own energy, more renewables, more nuclear, more efficiency,” said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. Calling for renewables is a constant obsession of the EU, but including nuclear in the conversation is a baby step in the right direction. Von der Leyen’s native Germany had previously been one of Europe’s leaders in phasing out nuclear power, beginning under Angela Merkel’s government in 2011 and continuing to 2023, when the country’s final three reactors were closed. Von der Leyen was not so forceful as to call for actually restarting German nuclear plants, but her comments came after the EU included nuclear power in its decarbonization strategy earlier this year. This progress notwithstanding, the EU still refuses to acknowledge that fossil fuels will remain indispensable for the foreseeable future. But reality has a way of making itself felt.

◼ About five years ago, if you asked people about pickleball, they’d probably have been confused about why anyone would want to soak a ball in vinegar. Today the game is ubiquitous, having become popular first with seniors and now with younger people as well. It’s a slower form of tennis, played with paddles and a plastic ball on a smaller court, and it has drawn condemnation from some players of its elder relative. The U.S. Tennis Association is now promoting “red-ball tennis,” played on pickleball courts with a softer, larger tennis ball and stringed rackets. This isn’t the first time a non-tennis racket sport has soared in popularity. Racquetball boomed in the late 1970s and early 1980s, with similarly rapid construction of racquetball courts across the country. Tennis survived, and racquetball has since declined. The best thing tennis could do for its popularity is to develop more U.S. professional talent. Can you name the current top-ranked American men’s tennis player?

◼ Shohei Ohtani dashed from first to second on a pitch in the dirt in Phoenix last Friday, stealing his 43rd base of the season. He hit his 43rd home run six innings later. No one in the history of Major League Baseball had put up such a high number in both categories in one season. Speed on the base paths, power at the plate: Few players—Alex Rodriguez in his prime, Mays in his, Bonds before steroids—have ever had both in abundance. An elbow injury has kept Ohtani, the best-hitting pitcher since Ruth, off the mound since last September. Now, as the every-day designated hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he compensates with his bat and legs for what his arm has prevented him from contributing to his team’s dominance of the National League West and its mission to snag its eighth world championship. He’s 46–44 (stolen bases and home runs) as of this writing and on track for a 50–50 season. “Incredible,” says his manager, Dave Roberts, marveling at the diversity of Ohtani’s baseball brilliance. “I don’t know what else to say. I don’t have any more superlatives.” Neither do we.