In today’s big story, we’re looking at why some Americans are still feeling the pinch, even though the economy looks good on paper.

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A Harris poll for the Guardian found that 56% of Americans believe the country is in a recession — and that the majority think the US has a shrinking economy. But according to economic data and experts who spoke with BI’s Madison Hoff, that’s not exactly the reality.

In fact, we haven’t seen a recession since the early months of 2020 — nor are we likely to enter into one anytime soon.

David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Madison there’s a reason many Americans feel otherwise.

“Americans’ negative attitude towards the economy is largely due to incessantly negative media coverage of economic and social issues,” he said in a statement. The already-gloomy news cycle is only amplified by social media, he added.

There are a few indicators that show the US economy is in decent shape, Madison reports. These include a robust GDP and relatively low unemployment rates. While inflation remains stubborn, it’s still under 4%.

Nobel economist Paul Krugman wrote earlier this year that inflation feels a lot worse than it actually is, adding that high grocery prices aren’t a good way to gauge the economy’s success.

The overall negativity surrounding the economy — known as the “vibecession” — shouldn’t be trusted, Krugman wrote.

On one hand, as BI’s Emily Stewart previously reported, a lot of Americans still have the financial stability to buy things — even if they grumble about the cost.

On the other hand, Emily pointed out, lower-income families are more likely to struggle even while America as a whole appears to be doing well. And the share of US households barely getting by is on the rise.

As it stands, about 29% of the American population are ALICEs, or asset-limited, income-constrained, employed. This group faces an economic predicament: they’re struggling financially, but still don’t qualify for government assistance.

For some, it can feel like the salary needed just to scrape by is continuously ticking up. Data shared with BI reporters Juliana Kaplan and Noah Sheidlower shows the amount of money needed to budget for necessities is increasing.

The data, from research organization United For ALICE, shows families’ “survival budgets” — the cost of things like food, housing, transportation — are well above the federal poverty level. In some states, that means needing more than $100,000.

So, the economy does look OK on paper, and there will likely be no recession anytime soon. However, as Madison highlighted, “just because we aren’t in a recession doesn’t mean the economy is perfect.”

🔔 Before the opening bell: US stock futures climb in premarket trading as Wall Street waits for more inflation data.

2. Recession alarm bells are ringing in these 21 states. In an interview with BI, Piper Sandler’s chief global economist, Nancy Lazar, highlighted the parts of the US where the three-month unemployment average has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points over the past 12 months. California and Illinois are among the states that made the list.

3. The BRICS group might be about to restart its de-dollarization drive. The bloc of emerging economies is set to meet in the Russian city of Kazan in late October. It could relaunch its effort to unseat the greenback, according to GlobalData.TS Lombard’s managing director of global political research Christopher Granville.

2. OpenAI says it is establishing a new safety and security committee. Sam Altman and Bret Taylor will serve as two of the leaders, according to a blog post published early Tuesday. The company also announced that it is training its “next frontier model.”

3. Who even buys iPads anymore? Apple’s recent product launch, replete with new features like a powerful M4 chip, shows that the company is looking to reinvigorate consumers. But the question is, is it actually working?

2. China’s EV market could soon face a brutal reckoning. Price wars and slowing demand are putting Chinese EV makers under pressure, and some execs are warning 2024 will be a “knockout round” — with some firms pushed to the brink.

3. The return of the steam loop. The old “district energy” system is starting to seem like a ready-made solution for businesses seeking cleaner, cheaper sources of heat. BI’s Adam Rogers breaks down US cities’ latest plan to crack the climate crisis.

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Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York.

Get in touch. Email us at insidertoday@insider.com

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