In today’s big story, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s rate-cut decision could impact the upcoming presidential election.

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For roughly a year, market watchers’ top question has been when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The decision, which has massive economic implications, is now butting up against another monumental event: a US presidential election.

The collision course puts an incredible amount of power in Fed chair Jerome Powell’s hands, Business Insider’s Emily Stewart writes. What he chooses to do with interest rates could swing the election either way.

It’s been a long, strange trip for Powell as Fed chair, which is somewhat fitting for the longtime Grateful Dead fan. He’s navigated two administrations (Trump and Biden), a global pandemic, and the highest inflation rate the country has seen in decades.

Of course, the last issue is partially the Fed’s fault. Most market experts believe the central bank waited too long to raise rates when the economy was booming.

Perhaps that’s why Powell has stuck to his tightening policy, even last year as banks failed and experts predicted a recession was unavoidable.

But now Powell has the added pressure of sticking a soft landing — no easy task — and not tipping the scales towards either candidate.

Lowering interest rates could be viewed as a win for President Joe Biden. It would provide an immediate boost to the economy and stock market, two things voters often judge a president on.

But every silver lining has a touch of gray. And a rate cut could send inflation soaring again, which would throw the economy for a loop and likely frustrate undecided voters.

Holding off on cuts, though, poses risks, too. The threat of a recession isn’t entirely out of the question, especially after an unexpected jump in the employment rate, according to economist David Rosenberg.

Powell has done a good job of tuning out the noise thus far. Even as there was talk earlier this year of a Goldilocks scenario and the market was pricing in twice as many cuts as Powell projected, he was unwavering.

But now, it’s not just the state of the economy that potentially hangs in the balance.

Your Monday headline catchup

A quick recap of the top news from over the weekend:

• Photos show the biggest moments from the 2024 Oscars.
• The Trump campaign paid an expert $750,000 to find fraud in the 2020 election, only for him to dismiss their complaints in minutes.
• Photo agencies are refusing to publish a portrait of Kate Middleton with her children over concerns it was manipulated.
• Apple has made a string of video ad hires, and it points to its growing TV ad ambitions.
• Zuck roasts the Apple headset again.
• The captain and copilot of an A320 fell asleep for 28 minutes during a flight to Jakarta, report says.

🔔 Before the opening bell: US stock futures slide in premarket trading as investors wait on more inflation data.

2. What’s this bitcoin “halving” thing all about? The cryptocurrency has had a big year, hitting an all-time high last week amid a big rally. Next up? A major event that’ll lower supply and potentially spike prices even more.

3. Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio have changed their minds about the economy. The two Wall Street titans are no longer expecting a recession, with inflation cooling and the job market holding steady. It’s an about-turn from 2022, when both Dimon and Dalio were warning of a sharp slowdown in growth.

2. Meet Boston’s new power venture capitalist. Underscore VC is changing up its ranks. Lily Lyman, who’s proved herself a force in Boston’s startup scene, has been identified as the firm’s next leader.

3. Nvidia is expanding its VC footprint. The chipmaker has invested in nearly three dozen startups over the past year, analysis shared with BI showed. The deals form part of Nvidia’s strategy to strengthen its own role in the rapidly growing AI ecosystem.

2. Lil Wayne promised a “drug-free” workplace to get pandemic aid. A program for indie music venues, which required artists to certify they ran “drug-free workplaces,” ended up paying millions to rich musicians. Among them was Lil Wayne, who received nearly $9 million in funding.

3. What dream job? Recent graduates are adjusting their career expectations amid signs that the job market is starting to weaken, according to labor experts. Layoff announcements are fueling Gen Z and millennial workers’ sense of pessimism.

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• Klaviyo CEO Andrew Bialecki explains why the company is only ‘1% done.’
• A tech entrepreneur shared the ‘stoke, stage, stack’ habit-creation framework that helps him keep habits up 365 days a year.

• Today’s earnings: Oracle, BuzzFeed, and other companies are reporting earnings.

Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London.

Get in touch. Email us at insidertoday@insider.com

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