Recession for (Almost) Everyone!

by Peter Zeihan on March 5, 2024

I was scanning the financial news this morning and realized Germany was in recession. In my morning brief I was informed Japan was in recession as well. On a call with a client someone brought up that the United Kingdom had joined the downers club. A quick convo with the staff revealed the same was true for Hungary and Ireland. And Greece and Lithuania and Estonia and Finland. Israel probably as well, while Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain and Italy are only a rounding error away. China’s data, such that it is, suggests that the Middle Kingdom is by most definitions at best recession-adjacent.

We’ve known for awhile that between China’s stumbles and global demographic aging that consumption-led growth on a global scale has become nearly impossible. The problem is we have lacked the data to confirm what theory dictates. GDP growth data always comes out with a lag of months. Often multiple quarters for many places. And COVID (~&@#^*-ing COVID) scrambled everyone’s data for nearly three years. Well, we’re starting to get a good deep look at reality again, and it appears we may already be past the point where the sort of economic activity we’ve all thought of as “normal” for so long is simply…over.

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