Niccolo Soldo

Nov 18, 2023

Every weekend (almost) I share five articles/essays/reports with you. I select these over the course of the week because they are either insightful, informative, interesting, important, or a combination of the above.

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While I am writing this latest SCR entry, the IDF has managed to successfully separate the Gaza Strip into two portions: north and south. The northern portion is being slowly and methodically constricted like a boa constrictor would a rodent that it has wrapped itself around on the jungle floor.

Like in any conflict, many assumptions have been made about the participants involved. Some have been proven correct, others have missed the mark. The Israelis indicated that they would slowly and methodically remove Hamas from Gaza once the Americans gave them the green light to to so. This is what they are now doing, an assumption that has been shown to be correct. Others have suggested that Hamas would be springing a trap in Gaza after luring the IDF in via their cross-border raids. As of now, no trap has been sprung.

Assumptions were also being made about who the participants would actually be in this conflict. The global left has hoped to see a “reckoning” take place between Israel and its regional opponents, but so far only Hamas has shown up in full force. Hezbollah has engaged in some light border skirmishing with Israel, while the Houthi rebels have sent a few drones towards Eliat, only to be shot down by the Israelis. Islamic Jihad is involved as well, but their numbers are tiny. Many Arabs, Muslims, and others who side with the Palestinians were hoping that Israel would be swarmed from all sides, or, at the very least, that Hezbollah would move against Israel in force from the north. That has not happened, much to the consternation of many. Iran’s proxies have been quite muted in their response to the Israeli entry into the Gaza Strip. For now, a regional war has been averted, and the conflict has been contained.

Elijah J. Magnier is a Middle Eastern journalist and analyst who I first came across during the Syrian Civil War. He is partial to Hezbollah without being blinded by partisanship. I’m sharing his report on why he believes that Hezbollah has opted to not “declare total war on Israel”:

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