Geopolitics

Israel is in a genuine state of war

Isabel Fattal

Senior editor

Yesterday, Hamas launched a multifront attack that shocked Israel, infiltrating the Gaza border by land, sea, and air. The attack took place on the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, nearly 50 years to the day after an Arab coalition’s surprise attack on Israel—the last assault of this scale—spurred the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

More than 600 Israelis have been killed, according to local reports. Thousands more are injured, and an unknown number of civilians and soldiers are being held hostage in Gaza. More than 300 Palestinians have been killed and more than 2,000 injured, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Last night, Israel’s security cabinet voted to officially put the country at war, and Israeli fighter jets have begun air strikes on targets inside Gaza.

Our writers are reporting on the stakes of this historic conflict, and exploring events as they continue to unfold. Below are five observations that help illuminate the latest.

War in Israel

(Mohammed Abed / AFP / Getty)

View in browser

Israel didn’t see this coming. Just one week ago, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” And “just a few days ago, the Gaza border seemed to have been stabilized after some unrest, and nearly 20,000 workers were able to travel across it again,” Atlantic contributing writer Juliette Kayyem wrote yesterday. Then, “thousands of rockets, which must have been obtained and hidden, were launched by Hamas. It did not end there. Hamas used drones to strike at Israeli targets. It sent its fighters on foot, by boat, and by air on motorized paragliders. Images have emerged of Hamas attackers on the streets of Israeli towns terrorizing citizens, and worse.”

“One aspect of this needs little analysis, but a lot of explanation,” Kayyem argues: “How did Israel’s extensive counterterrorism efforts fail to pick up an attack waged by land, sea, and air? How did its defenses fail so extensively?”

The role of Hamas’s backers in the Middle East is still unknown. “So far the geopolitics of this war are only starting to be understood,” the Atlantic staff writer Graeme Wood wrote yesterday. “Hamas has backers—Iran and Syria foremost among them—and unlike the flat-footed Israelis, they are likely to have had plenty of time to think through how the war will unfold.”

Negotiations with Saudi Arabia and Israel will most likely stall. “The most predictable consequence of the war will be a pause in the process of diplomatic recognition” between the two countries, Wood noted. “The countries have long had a working security partnership, and it is an open secret that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would, for the right price, expand that partnership to include full normalization. That is impossible while civilians on either side are dying in large numbers, and their mangled bodies are being exhibited on social media.”

The U.S. will need to start rationing its weaponry. “If war breaks out generally around Israel, and questions arise about Israel’s very survival, the United States will have to start counting its ammunition,” Wood writes. “How much is left for Israel, after Ukraine has taken its share? And what about Taiwan, now third in line?”

This could be a Pyrrhic victory for Hamas. “The trauma in Israel today should give pause to those thinking that Israel will simply acquiesce to a short tit for tat,” Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote yesterday. “As bad as things have been in Gaza in the past two decades—and they have been terrible—the coming weeks could prove even worse.”

“Israel is in a genuine state of war—not merely one more round of Israel-Hamas fighting,” Sachs wrote. “The psychological impact of these attacks creates political cover, and political demand, for Israel to go much further than it has in the past, to be willing to pay and to exact prices it has previously stopped short of.”

Related:

Evening Read

(Michael Ochs Archives / Getty)

The Least-Known Rock God

Early in the movie Almost Famous, the gruff journalist Lester Bangs sizes up the young music writer William Miller with a litmus test: “And you like Lou Reed?”

William, at once cocky and nervous, stumbles as he tries to impress his elder. He tells Bangs he’s into “the early stuff” but that these days (the 1970s), Reed is trying to be David Bowie. Wrong! Bangs proceeds to school William, and perhaps the film’s audience: It’s Bowie who’s “doing Lou.” William is a fictional character based on the filmmaker Cameron Crowe’s teenage self, but Bangs was a real music critic, and he was very much obsessed with Reed, putting him on a pedestal not unlike the way others deified Bob Dylan.

Read the full article.

Culture Break

(Illustration by Joanne Imperio / The Atlantic. Source: Getty.)

Read. As the weather cools down, transport yourself to another place with a final pick from our summer reading list.

Listen. Could Ozempic derail the body-positivity movement? Host Hanna Rosin and science writer Olga Khazan discuss on the Radio Atlantic podcast.

Play our daily crossword.


Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.

The Atlantic’s Guide to Privacy

The question now isn’t how to protect your digital privacy altogether—it’s how to make choices that help you draw boundaries around what you most care about. Read on for our simple rules for protecting your data, from big tech to retailers, and how to protect your kids’ privacy online.

Learn More

Categories: Geopolitics

Leave a Reply