by Peter Zeihan on August 30, 2023

Most people would scoff at the idea that Cuba could end the US as a major power, but that small country has something no one else does…

Looking back at the Cuban Missile Crisis, you might think JFK overreacted. In reality, JFK saw the Soviets’ move into Cuba for what it really was – a direct threat to America’s existence. Cuba straddles the access points to the Gulf of Mexico, and if they had the military power to shut it down, the US would be in big trouble.

Since the Cold War ended, I’ve expected a warming in relations with Cuba, and to some degree, they have. Obama struck a (shitty) deal with them, which Trump later repealed. Don’t focus too much on the deal, but consider these actions by opposite presidents an indication that Cuba is top of mind.

Cuba is still grasping onto any major power that will give them the time of day, aka Russia or China, but we all know how those countries are doing. Cuba’s position is simply too critical for the US to ignore, so a US-Cuba deal is inevitable, but that doesn’t mean it’s imminent.

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