|Happy New Year, readers! We hope your holiday season was restful. As we kick off 2023, there’s one thing on everyone’s mind: Are we facing a recession? And, if so, how bad will it be?
It depends on who you ask.
Goldman Sachs economists say we’ll avoid a recession this year, instead progressing towards a soft landing. JPMorgan’s chief economist is warning of higher unemployment and predicts the U.S. won’t see reprieve until the beginning of 2024. And the International Monetary Fund’s managing director expects “one-third of the world economy to be in recession” this year.
Wall Street pessimist and Stern School of Business professor emeritus Nouriel Roubini sees a debt crisis quickly approaching, potentially pushing the world towards “another variant of a Great Depression.” While Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. economy might be able to slip past the absolute worst of a recession, despite seeing higher unemployment and slowed growth.
CFOs and CEOs have already pulled out their recession playbooks, plotting courses through a worst-case scenario. American consumers are tightening their finances, with two in three believing their finances won’t improve in 2023 and 11% believing they’ll be “significantly worse.”
Right now, it’s too early to tell. But the Fortune newsroom is dedicated to guiding you through whatever this year brings, and we’re glad you’re along for the ride with us.