Economics/Class Relations

New year, same recession fears

January 7, 2023

 

A NOTE FROM OUR EDITOR-IN-CHIEF ALYSON SHONTELL

Happy New Year, readers! We hope your holiday season was restful. As we kick off 2023, there’s one thing on everyone’s mind: Are we facing a recession? And, if so, how bad will it be?

 

It depends on who you ask.

 

Goldman Sachs economists say we’ll avoid a recession this year, instead progressing towards a soft landing. JPMorgan’s chief economist is warning of higher unemployment and predicts the U.S. won’t see reprieve until the beginning of 2024. And the International Monetary Fund’s managing director expects “one-third of the world economy to be in recession” this year.

 

Wall Street pessimist and Stern School of Business professor emeritus Nouriel Roubini sees a debt crisis quickly approaching, potentially pushing the world towards “another variant of a Great Depression.” While Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. economy might be able to slip past the absolute worst of a recession, despite seeing higher unemployment and slowed growth.

 

CFOs and CEOs have already pulled out their recession playbooks, plotting courses through a worst-case scenario. American consumers are tightening their finances, with two in three believing their finances won’t improve in 2023 and 11% believing they’ll be “significantly worse.”

 

Right now, it’s too early to tell. But the Fortune newsroom is dedicated to guiding you through whatever this year brings, and we’re glad you’re along for the ride with us.

 
The U.S. might avoid a full-out recession, but get ready for a ‘slowcession’ says one of the first economists to predict the 2008 financial crash

 

The year ahead will no doubt be tough for the U.S. economy, but the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics wants us to be a little more optimistic.

BY TRISTAN BOVE

JANUARY 4, 2023

 
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SUCCESS

Is it a bad time to change jobs? Here’s how the experts think looming recession will affect job seekers in 2023

Despite economic uncertainty in 2022, the U.S. labor market remained strong. Experts weighed in on how that might change in the new year.

The tried and tested techniques CEOs are using to boost morale and beat ‘January Blues’

Even the toughest leaders can’t avoid feeling burned out. But here’s how a few CEOs are embracing the lows to tackle a new year.

Shopify is axing all meetings involving more than two people in a remote work ‘calendar purge’ that the company itself calls ‘fast and chaotic’

The e-commerce giant is cutting 76,500 hours of meetings from employee calendars in a bid to improve productivity.

PERSONAL FINANCE

‘Good investing should be boring’: It’s time to go back to the financial basics in 2023

As the cost of living climbs and a recession looms, it’s time to keep personal finances simple in 2023. Here’s how.

FINANCE

The Crystal Ball: VCs, private equity investors, and tech founders predict what’s to come in 2023

Here’s what private equity expects in the new year, from which industries are ripe for M&A to what’s next in the metaverse.

Interactive map: The home price correction (or lack thereof) in the 400 largest U.S. housing markets

Despite double digit declines in mortgage applications and number of homes sold, home prices have dipped only slightly—less than 3%.

FEATURES

They say it’s lonely for women at the top. These two CEOs and best friends never felt that way

Their partnership lended itself to business success at the online dating service Match Group and now in their roles at the private equity firm Advent International.

TECH

Tesla’s ugly Q4 deliveries miss is the first hard proof that Elon Musk has a growing demand problem

Vehicle sales came in below even the lowest expectations on Wall Street, sending the stock tumbling 14% to lows unseen since August 2020.

TikTok has become a surprise hotspot for ChatGPT fans, as viral videos offer tips and tricks to use the A.I.—and some hype

TikTok stars are touting the new generative A.I. technology as a game-changing tool to start companies, land jobs, and level up at work.
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