Bill Lind, a Hobbesian and Clausewitzian realist, is one of my favorite military and geopolitical commentators. Anarchists, your historical moment may happen sooner than you think. So when are you going to get your shit together?
By William S. Lind, Traditional Right
An article in the December 9, 2022 Wall Street Journal brought some rare good strategic news about the war in Ukraine. It seems that a few of Ukraine’s allies understand that a complete Russian defeat could bring about the dissolution of the Russian state, and that this represents the worst possible outcome.
The Journal article, “Ukraine Minister Urges Bold Support from Western Allies,” reports that:
Ukraine’s foreign minister called on the country’s allies not to fear a possible breakup of the Russian state as a consequence of the war. . .
Though Kyiv’s Western allies are united over the goal of preventing a Ukrainian defeat, not all embrace the objective of a full-blown Ukrainian military victory. . .
Some of these allies worry that such an outcome could destabilize the nuclear-armed Russian state, potentially leading to its fragmentation and wide-scale unrest, with unpredictable global consequences.
The Journal article does not identify the states that are expressing this concern, but hurrah for them. They are daring to inject a note of realism into a policy world dominated by Washington’s neo-Wilsonianism, which has already led to the destruction of several states, including Iraq, Syria, and Libya. These (undoubtedly European) governments expressing their concern about a potential Russian break-up seem to have grasped the central fact of the 21st century strategy, namely that a state collapse is a greater danger than state bad behavior. Europe would be facing fewer problems today if Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya were all functioning states ruled by tyrants.