by Peter Zeihan on October 17, 2022
The Biden administration’s moves against China’s semiconductor industry are continuing to have serious consequences, including the largely universal resignation of American citizens working in the Chinese chip industry. China will rapidly find itself unable to fill in several critical gaps in terms of skilled workers, design work, technological inputs, etc. What are Beijing’s options?
With Europe and Japan largely on board with US action–not many. South Korea and Taiwan could address some needs, but far from all. China’s future will likely be one where it sources inputs on the grey market–buying components or pulling chips from third-party devices and attempting to insert them in products and industries they were not designed for. It’s going to be a time-consuming, ugly, imperfect process, with serious implications for high level computing, China’s emerging defense platforms, telecommunications, and more.