Culture Wars/Current Controversies

November Red Wave May Fail To Materialize

I’m terrible at predicting the outcome of elections, mostly because I don’t take them seriously enough to follow all of the nuances involved. I see elections as public rituals that ratify and legitimize predetermined policies that have already been decided based on the dominant consensus of elites. But I suspect Paul is on to something here.
In societies that are highly fractured into competing tribes, people vote with their tribe in public elections irrespective of who the individual leaders are. A tribe’s leader can be a completely incompetent moron, and the tribe will still back him because “he is one of us and not one of them.” The other tribes are viewed as existential enemies.

By Paul Gottfried, American Greatness

National polls and presidential head to heads obscure fundamental Democratic Party strengths going into the midterms.

According to recent polling by the Democracy Institute, if a presidential election were held today, 54 percent of the vote would go to Donald Trump but only 43 percent to Joe Biden. That outcome would put The Donald back into the Oval Office, by a landslide that would exceed any number that Joe might have received in 2020. (No, I don’t accept the official figures given, even if I’m not sure that Trump actually won.)

From these poll numbers, I might also conclude that Trump’s party would pulverize Joe’s in the fall elections, outside of certain areas that vote Democratic no matter what. It is also the case that Republicans are leading Democrats in generic polls. That may be further proof that Republicans are headed for an electoral blowout.

Not so fast! If one looks at individual state races, the Republicans are not exactly soaring above the clouds. In my own state of Pennsylvania, the decidedly left-leaning Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro has a documented lead over his Republican rival, Doug Mastriano.


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