Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was common for analysts in the West to presume a war on Europe’s eastern edge would provoke rancorous division over how to respond within the European Union and NATO. Some economic sanctions would undoubtedly be imposed. But beyond that, we’d see bickering and backbiting from Barcelona to Berlin.

In fact, the diametric opposite has occurred. Europe has been united and resolute. Commercial and private planes from Russia have been locked out of European airspace. Individual countries have begun seizing property from Russian oligarchs, including their vulgarly ostentatious super-yachts, and sending weapons to Ukraine. And Germany, the wealthiest country in Europe (measured by total 2020 GDP), has sharply increased defense spending, breaking from decades of resistance to doing so. (The first poll published since the change shows 78 percent German support for that shift; another puts support somewhat lower, but still at roughly two-thirds of the country.)

Put it all together and we’re left with an undeniable conclusion: Russian President Vladimir Putin has inadvertently accomplished what often seemed impossible — bringing the continent together on foreign policy and thereby laying a solid foundation for a true United States of Europe. The implications for the EU and the U.S. alike will be profound.

British conservative Ed West recently explained the motor behind the change in an illuminating Substack post. Just as Napoleon’s conquering army unintentionally inspired national self-consciousness and aspirations among formerly disparate European peoples, so Putin’s invasion has provoked unity in the continent as a whole, as members of the EU have felt deeply threatened by a common adversary. This is a straightforward illustration of in-group/out-group dynamics: Any group’s internal cohesion increases when it defines itself against an external threat.

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