First, let me be clear that my empathy and solidarity, my “side” are with the people that are not responsible. This fundamentally extends to the Ukrainian people and their right to defend themselves, as well as to the courageous anti-war protesters within Russia. My empathy also extends to the Russian conscripts and their families. Ultimately, Putin’s regime has made this decision and the blood spilled rests firmly on his hands. However, it is disingenuous to not acknowledge that our own leadership has played a critical role in creating the context and conditions for this war. Another future was possible at the end of the Cold War, but that is not the route our leadership chose. They bear an enormous responsibility for creating the political and economic conditions in which Putin arose.

Our leaders chose to treat Russia as a vanquished enemy (not unlike the Entente Powers treated Germany at the end of the Great War). In the 1990’s Russia was forced to back its domestic issuance of Rubbles with US treasuries, such that during the early 90’s Russia paid 100% interest to the United State for all domestic spending. Russia was forced to pay twice for every road it paved, every civil servant it paid and so on, and this played no small part in Russia’s GDP collapsing by 50%. Since then, NATO has expanded to encircle Russia and violated the agreement of the 1997 NATO- Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations. Likewise, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) and the Intermediary Nuclear Force treaty (INF). We must reject all imperialism and militarism, and if we are to be both consistent and effective, we must reject the structural, political logics that fuel militarism and conflict.

What can we expect of the conflict in Ukraine at present? The first thing to note is that Russia’s primary objective has already failed, and that was for there to be a rapid sweep across Eastern Ukraine and encirclement of Kiev. The Ukrainian military has proven itself both resilient and surprisingly effective in the first 3 days, and general Ukrainian morale is robust. The Russian military advance from the North and East are bogged down and taking heavy losses. This suggests that the conflict is turning into a war of attrition which is really the nightmare scenario for the Russian planners. However, it’s still very unlikely that the Russian military will be defeated given the resources they can commit to the fight. The Ukrainian military’s objective will be to resist as hard and for as long as possible while they set up the infrastructure for guerrilla warfare behind the advancing Russian front. Their aim is to make this conflict so costly, so pyrrhic that the Russians will be forced into a favourable, negotiated settlement and withdrawal.

Russian forces will continue to attempt to encircle and take Kiev in order to decapitate the command-and-control structure of the political leadership as well as to demoralise the country. However, thus far, this has proven extremely costly, with some reports suggesting losses of whole platoons of Russian paratroopers. Likewise, Russians will continue to try and breakthrough from the East and North. However, they seem to have completely stalled around Kharkiv and there seem to be serious logistical issues with their supply chains (which is really astonishing at this stage of the process and a extremely bad sign for the Russian war effort).

The Southern Crimean front is the only location the Russians have made any significant advances. The only major strategic goal they have achieved thus far is the securing of the North Crimean Canal and resolving the water crisis in Crimea. Their next major strategic aim will be to link up the southern corridor from Crimea with Donetsk and Luhansk and will probably happen in the next few days. By my reckoning, the subsequent strategic aim will be to push west along the southern coast to take control of Odessa and link up with their forces in Transnistria. This will cut western Ukraine off from the Black Sea, giving Russia serious leverage over the country’s economy and advantage in negotiations when they happen. Following this, we will see what I believe to be Russia’s major geostrategic aim, which is control of the entirety of the Dnieper River in Ukraine.

The Dnieper provides the most geographically defensible position in the region. One of Russia’s major strategic concerns is access to the Baku oil fields and the reserves in the Caspian Sea. The Russian border from Ukraine to Kazakhstan is roughly 700 km, and to be cut off from the Baku and Caspian would absolutely cripple the Russian economy. This was the German goal in the Stalingrad campaign during the Second World War. Control of the Dnieper provides Russia with a strategic buffer against one of its major geographic vulnerabilities. With control of the Ukraine’s southern coast and the Dnieper, eastern Ukraine would be completely encircled. This is also the area which has traditionally had the most pro-Russian sentiment, and therefore presents the most feasible area of Ukraine which Russia can effectively hold. I very seriously doubt they have any interest in taking western Ukraine as this is where they are liable to face the most extreme popular resistance.

In my view, the end game for Russia only has two realistic pathways. Russia could force a federalised structure that politically decentralises Ukraine. This would allow western Ukraine to be aligned with Europe, but militarily ineffectual and incapable of being incorporated into NATO. Eastern Ukraine would be in Russia’s sphere of influence, preventing NATO incorporation and allowing Russian forces to station along the Dnieper in a “peacekeeping” role. This was essentially one of Russia’s key demands in the diplomatic process that western powers refused to seriously engage with. The other option is to turn western Ukraine into a Rump state and essentially absorb Eastern Ukraine into the Russian federation. This gives Russia the regional geographic advantage, but the downside from their perspective is that it opens a pathway for western Ukraine’s incorporation into NATO and the E.U. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s only real hope is to make this conflict so protracted, bloody, and economically deleterious for Russia that domestic pressure forces a withdrawal and pushes Putin from power.

No matter what, the world order is never going to be the same again. New political and economic alignments as well as new conflicts are going to emerge across multiple regions in the coming years. The good news is that the current conflict is unlikely to trigger a nuclear war. This would require multiple miscalculations from multiple actors at this stage, and while not impossible, it is not probable. However, if Russia is cut off from SWIFT in the next couple of days, as is claimed by the head of the ECB, then we can expect Russia to cut off gas supplies to Europe. If this happens, the economic fallout will be devastating, and we will witness a series of cascading events that will move very fast and will be very hard to predict. This could literally happen next week and will be a major turning point in global history. So, (particularly if you live in Europe) build your solidarity networks, make sure you have resources and plans for taking care of your family and community. We can only build a future worth living in by taking care of one another.

Love and Solidarity – A