The moment Biden hints he will not run, he becomes a lame duck and Vice President Harris becomes a 2024 candidate (and target for potential rivals). Trump’s insatiable hunger for attention demands he maintain the status of 2024 frontrunner. In addition, his fundraising racket and status as a kingmaker in the 2022 midterms would shrivel as soon as he backs out. Moreover, so long as he is a 2024 contender he can frame any criminal indictment that might come his way as a political stunt to keep him off the ballot. Therefore, in all likelihood, he will keep the prospect of a presidential campaign alive right up until he decides he would rather not face rivals and a daily barrage of questions about his 2020 loss.

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