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  1. We were wrong before but this time its different? Give me a break. Krystal in some ways is irritatingly mainstream and probably will end up looking like Stephen Colbert eventually. She is marginally better then some but only marginally at best. The election is a coinflip based on the electoral college and swing states. THis was Nassim Taleb’s point awhile back criticizing the polling. Besides the opaque math issuers of whether non linear events like elections can be modeled in the same way baseball or horse racing can is of some question but as a person who did some polling in college the answer rate of these polls is rather low and there is no reason to suggest the answer rate isn’t lower then it was a few years ago. I hardly ever answer my phone if its not someone I know. Even if someone got me to answer I would probably hang up! The idea that this just washes out thanks to the law of large numbers to me is a claim which to me can’t be justified. Nate Silver, and pollsters, are in the business of selling forecasts and Silver can’t even make a final prediction to see if they are right or wrong.


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