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1. We have hit a series of critical inflection points in the Syrian conflict with recent events.

   The most important is that Erdogan has now unmasked himself as a deep supporter of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Frankly there is no other explanation of why he would risk an open conflict with Russia in their defense. It was one thing to brazenly support terrorist proxies when there were no consequences, but to risk the whole economic relationship with Russia and quite possibly a real war?

   Evidence pointing in this direction has been accumulating for some time. The Turkish intelligence service (the MIT) has had its fingerprints all over the post-Arab Spring Jihads, and not just in Syria. What we are dealing with is an out if control neo-ottoman/Islamist personality cult that has now brazenly adopted the Pakistani policy of deep state support for the salafist Jihad. I don’t like tinfoil hats, but I no longer see any other explanation for Erdogan’s behavior.

   I have nothing against the Turkish people, and before the Syrian Jihad I regarded Erdogan as one of the few real leaders in the whole region, and the AKP as a perfectly legitimate expression of the politics of the majority of Turks. There was real reform and economic development and even a successful peace process with the Kurds. Like most I viewed the AKPs success as one of the most important bulwarks against Takfiri Jihadism, and one of the few success stories in the region. Were we all wrong?

   Was Erdogan always a Takfiri Islamist or is he just completely out of his mind? Was either a radical shift or an evolutionary development? How else can we explain a deliberate plot to ambush a Russian aircraft, either to capture the pilot as a hostage to murder on video, or just to provoke the Russians into a full scale war?

   This is a very radical conclusion but it is one that fits together all the events since the beginning of the Jihad in Syria into a more of a sensible picture than any other. It also explains how the Islamic State doesn’t run out of ammunition for all that American equipment it captured from the Iraqi Army. It explains how the Islamic State that rules over a burned out wasteland has enough logistics to launch highly mobile armored offensives across Syria and Iraq.

   Most of all it explains why Turkey is brazenly continuing to arm and supply Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, when Putin has made it perfectly clear that the entire relationship with Russia is at stake and so is a war.

   This unveiling throws my previous predictions out the window, as they were written under the assumption that Turkey would back down and make a deal with Putin. We are now looking at a whole new war if Erdogan continues on his present course.

   The second major inflection point is that the Daesh death squad strike in Paris has shattered European support for the moderate democratic cannibal beheaders in Syria. This is a self-inflicted defeat for the Takfiris as Europe was perfectly happy to look the other way as these monsters slaughtered Syria and Iraq, as long as it unseated Assad. Now they have finally woken up to the danger, and have in fact already forgotten all their crocodile tears over the “Syrian rebels”.

   It is quite noticeable in the western analysis of the Paris massacre that “state sponsorship” appearing to suggest Turkey is being reported by usually very pro-NATO analysts. France has not invoked the NATO charter and has instead involved the solidarity clause in the EU. The important difference between the two is that the EU is a much weaker alliance but it does not include Turkey. This suggests that the French understand perfectly well what side Turkey is on.

   With the NATO/GCC alliance behind the Syrian Jihad crumbling, The United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will stand alone. The defection of the Europeans from the coalition will make Obama’s position increasingly untenable and I firmly predict he will throw Erdogan under the bus by January. The liberal narrative on Syria and Turkey is already turning for the Kurds, and suddenly the western media is discovering that Erdogan is a “corrupt” dictator building an Islamist police state on the ruins of Turkish democracy. Watch as the entire “Bad Dictator” narrative that has been used on Putin is seamlessly retasked to demonize Erdogan instead.

   The third inflection point is yet unkown the Russian reaction to the Turkish provocation. If Erdogan thought his provocation would deter Russia, he could not have miscalculated more. The Turkish ambush of the Russian jet has opened the floodgates of popular support for the Syrian operation in Russia, and Putin is now free from any domestic political constraints. Putin’s political problem now is managing Russian rage and focusing it into useful actions. Erdogan mistook the Russians for the hamster-men of the west. Now he is about to feel the jaws of the enraged bear.

   If Putin decides to risk a world war with NATO by striking the Turkish state, I expect a blitz of pinpoint attacks followed very quickly by overwhelming force. The initial attacks will likely be carried out by naval launched cruise missiles and strategic bomber forces that will destroy the Turkish air force and navy within the first day. Once Russian domination of the black sea has been firmly established the Dardanelles straits will either be seized by airborne and naval forces or rendered uninhabitable with sheer firepower.

   I do not actually expect Putin to risk a nuclear war with NATO, but if he does I expect NATO will disintegrate rather than fight. The west is not going to sacrifice Washington or Brussels to save the Turks. The most dangerous aspect of all the NATO provocations of the recent years is that NATO is a hollow alliance, and it will shatter under any real stress. If the hysteria of western analysts is correct, and Russia truly determined to break the NATO alliance at all costs, they have themselves handed Putin the golden opportunity to do so.

   Assuming Putin is not ready to risk World War 3, we will see an across the board escalation of actions already under way in Syria. Already the feared S-400 systems have been activated, and more jets have been dispatched. At minimum the border traffic from Turkey is going to be mercilessly interdicted and the Turkish staging areas on the Syrian side of the border will be completely annihilated. I also expect a major acceleration of covert warfare from the Russians. Overt and covert support for the Kurdish and Alevi resistance movements within Turkey is going to go through the roof.

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