| New in Telos Insights
by David Pan
China’s recent live fire military exercises around Taiwan have increased concerns about its arms buildup and intentions regarding Taiwan. Such moves by China highlight the urgency of the debate about Taiwan’s ability to defend itself and the U.S. commitment to its defense. The outcome of this debate will have repercussions around the world and for the rest of the century. We urgently need to understand the issues at stake and the ways our decision-making will affect the future.
In the first place, there should be little doubt about China’s plans for a forceful occupation. Taiwan has the most reliable assessments of Chinese plans, and we should take their concerns very seriously, as the Taiwanese will be most affected by Chinese foreign policy and have the best resources for evaluating it. In looking at the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) discussions, government messaging, and the details of China’s military buildup, it has become clear to the Taiwanese that China’s economic and political actions over the last two decades can be summed up as a methodical, long-term preparation for taking Taiwan. In addition to aircraft carriers, the Chinese have been building amphibious landing craft and portable port facilities to successfully carry out an invasion. They have been making their economy more self-sufficient through the acquisition of key resources and technology. At the same time, they have worked hard to make themselves indispensable to the rest of the world through their near monopoly over rare earth minerals and their commitment to industrial capacity. Finally, they have been engaging in an intensive propaganda campaign in Taiwan to create a sense of the inevitability of occupation by China.
In my meetings with Taiwanese foreign policy experts this past summer, virtually all of them anticipate some sort of invasion or other aggressive action in the next one to three years. The differences of opinion concern the way in which Taiwan should react to this situation. President William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) reaffirmed Taiwan’s determination to defend its sovereignty and is working hard to prepare Taiwan’s military for an invasion. While recognizing that Taiwan will depend on using asymmetric weapons such as mines and drones to counter an invasion, they also understand that ships and plans are necessary right now in order to challenge Chinese incursions into Taiwanese waters and air space. However, the Kuomintang (KMT), which dominates the legislature, has blocked President Lai’s attempts to increase military spending and proposes to try and find accommodations with the CPP in order to forestall or prevent an invasion. These voices recognize, however, that such a strategy would, over the long term, still lead eventually either to a delayed invasion or to a coerced surrendering of Taiwan.
The KMT, having been a vociferously anti-communist party for most of the twentieth century, has surprisingly changed its position in this century to become a crucial partner for the CCP. The KMT suggests that Taiwan should cooperate more with China, particularly on economic issues, and that a more conciliatory approach would be the best for Taiwan’s economy. Since losing elections twenty years ago and becoming an opposition party after decades in power, the KMT has been using this economic message as a way to gain back votes. Unfortunately, this approach is dangerous because increasing economic dependence on China could turn Taiwan into the next Hong Kong, in which tight economic ties have led to political subjugation and the elimination of liberal democratic freedoms. Through their dominance in the legislature, the KMT has been opposing President Lai’s efforts and thereby hampering Taiwan’s project of increasing and revamping its military forces, most recently by beginning impeachment proceedings. The KMT might even move toward promoting the CCP’s ideal scenario of a “voluntary” merging with China that would amount to a surrender of Taiwan’s sovereignty along the lines of the Hong Kong model of eventual total subjugation.
To pursue the CCP ambition to occupy Taiwan, Chinese commentators have been appealing to President Trump to “call on Taiwan to stand down” and move toward “formally opposing Taiwanese independence.” In order to convince the United States of China’s peaceful intentions in spite of its ongoing military buildup, which includes a new, third aircraft carrier and a series of amphibious landing barges, they have been improbably promoting the idea that Taiwan poses a military threat to China, claiming that “Taiwan and the United States will have to countenance some military buildup to allow for credible deterrence from China.” Using an awkward formulation to mask a ludicrous justification for China’s vast arms buildup, such diplomatic gaslighting has become the primary strategy in China’s attempt to suggest that the United States and Taiwan are the aggressors and should “stand down.”
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