A “feel good” Bad Idea

One of the greatest foreign policy and military geniuses of his time, Otto von Bismarck said, “The life of a man is like a game of chess, which he plays according to his art.” You really have to look ahead several moves when making geo-political decisions. The great long-term weakness of American foreign policy is a consistent failure to look ahead. With the possible exception of my greatest foreign policy hero, the late diplomat George Kennan, looking ahead has not been one of America’s strong points and this failure has served us poorly for many years.

The conflict between the mainly Christian Ibos and the mainly Muslim Hausas has been a festering sore since the country gained independence from Britain. It really heated up during the Nigerian Civil War, which lasted from 1967 to 1970. The Ibos were good fighters, but they had one major problem, Nigeria is a majority Muslim country and the Christians will, to a greater or lesser extent, always be “picked on” by the dominant Hausas and defeated militarily if they take up arms.

So, unless we want to genocide 10-12% of the Hausa tribe, Israeli-style, as per Gaza, We need to stay out of this fight. Of course, genociding the Hausas would be profoundly immoral. The Christians of Nigeria are going to have to do the best they can to prevent violence while living in a country where they are a minority. The Ibo are very well educated, maybe the smartest black Africans in the world, and have been known for having good business skills. There is no easy road for them and few ways in which US diplomacy can help them.