Should China attack, both Biden and Trump have been explicit that the US would intervene economically and militarily. Beijing doesn’t believe that, though. Despite the echo chamber Xi Jinping has created, deep down, he knows that this invasion doesn’t bode well for them.

China lacks the logistical capabilities to move a large enough force effectively and efficiently across the Taiwan Strait, so Taiwan would have time to prepare, and it would become a shooting gallery. If they somehow managed to capture Taiwan, that would only be the beginning of China’s problems. China couldn’t operate the semiconductor fabs, supply chains would begin to collapse, energy and agriculture imports would falter…

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