| ◼ A federal judge has declined to force Google to sell its Chrome browser. The judge’s message for the tech industry was that, now as 30 years ago, it is simply too chaotic and fast-moving to permit aggressive antitrust action. In his opinion, Judge Amit Mehta noted that the recent rise of artificial intelligence had substantively “changed the course of this case,” before complaining that, because such innovations are so systemically disruptive, his court was being “asked to gaze into a crystal ball and look to the future.” In this, he was right. It is impossible to review the past three decades of American tech development and see anything other than repeated episodes of creative destruction. There is no Standard Oil in this equation—and there never will be.
◼ At the beginning of January 2024, gold was trading at around $2,050. This past Wednesday, its price reached nearly $3,620. Roughly half that rise has taken place since Donald Trump became president. Over the same period, the dollar has sold off sharply. That’s no coincidence, both mathematically (if the dollar falls, the gold price in dollars will rise) and for more fundamental reasons. The dollar and by extension Treasuries are seen as safe-haven assets as, of course, is gold. Persistent geopolitical tensions have played—and are playing—a significant part in gold’s rise, but, in addition, this year, some of the greenback’s safe-haven appeal has faded. Concerns that the administration would welcome some dollar depreciation have been reinforced by the pressure it has been putting on the Fed to cut rates before Biden-era inflation has finally been tamed, and with any tariff effect still unknown. Those concerns have been bolstered still further by signs that the White House is set, whether through personnel changes or otherwise, on having a more accommodating central bank. The result, ironically, will mean that the U.S. ends up paying more to borrow, not less.
◼ Governments that crack down on free speech tend to be afraid that too many people will express the wrong sort of opinions, and that too many people will agree with them. This explains why, in Britain, where the ruling establishment, regardless of which party is in charge, has adopted an increasingly authoritarian progressivism, successive governments have been extending the reach of the country’s censors, including online. And that is why a growing number of Brits have found themselves on the wrong side of the law for comments that might sometimes be rough-edged but, in this country of the First Amendment, would not even merit a minute of police scrutiny. The recent case of TV writer and comedian Graham Linehan is illustrative. Linehan was arrested upon returning to the U.K. from the U.S. for social media posts on trans issues. (He is now out on bail.) Aside from transgenderism, one of the topics of online discussion most likely to draw the attention of the U.K.’s speech police is criticism of mass immigration. That, and the recent profusion of Palestinian flags, has provoked many Brits to start putting up Union Jacks or England’s St. George’s flag. This may be a warning of a deeper fracturing to come. The state’s refusal to listen—of which censorship is just one sign—will only make it worse.
◼ When, enraged by disappointing results in last year’s EU elections, France’s President Macron called snap parliamentary elections, he set in motion a chain of events that has taken his country to the edge of economic and political crisis. The snap election led to a broken parliament. Strong showings by both Marine Le Pen’s RN and the far left meant that the only option acceptable to Macron was a centrist minority government. The first of these fell in December, and the second may be about to follow suit after Prime Minister François Bayrou called a confidence vote for September 8 on his plan to (modestly) cut France’s budget deficit, which is 5.4 percent of GDP (its debt stands at 114 percent of GDP). Both the Socialists and RN have said they will vote against Bayrou, in which case his government will fall, without any obvious successor. Financial markets are beginning to tremble and interest rates on France’s government debt have been going up. Polls suggest that another snap election might well strengthen RN’s position, increasing political tensions and rattling markets still further. In chess, the term “Zugzwang” describes a situation when any move a player makes will make his position worse. Perhaps it should be renamed a “Macron.” |