View this email in your browser

Watch This Number for Recession Indicators

by Peter Zeihan on June 20, 2025

To get early access to all the videos and newsletters, as well as other perks like the news digest, join the Patreon…

You can join the Patreon page at the link below!

LINK FOR THE PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/peterzeihan

Everyone, get your calendars out and draw a big red circle around July. Why? Because a recession could be coming.

The tariff war caused a huge drop in imports from China, with transpacific shipments falling to historic lows. Trump has since backed off the gas, but the supply gap could strain US inventories. If those stockpiles run out, a recession will follow in short order. And we can say thanks to the erratic policy for this recession, as consumer demand and investments have remained steady.

But the real point of this video is to give you a tool to monitor early signs of economic trouble: first-time unemployment claims. What we’re seeing right now is a rise in claims, when all other economic signs say that unemployment should be falling. There are some specifics and nuance to this, but it’s a good starting point.

Link to the tracker: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICNSA

Please click below to watch today’s video

YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/U2IWh7X78Jk

We appreciate the interest and engagement from our followers, but with Peter’s travel schedule and sheer volume of requests, we are unable to answer non-business-related questions via e-mail. Use the ‘Ask Peter’ page below for your video topics, ideas and burning questions…

follow me on socials

To make sure you get our emails, please add our email address to your saved contacts or Whitelist.