Jerome Powell has been on the receiving end of Trump’s threats and the markets have reacted negatively to the undermining of the Fed’s credibility. Here’s the full picture.
The Fed is raising rates to combat inflation driven by Trump’s tariffs. Higher rates = more expensive borrowing = slower economic activity. A necessary evil to prevent an inflation spiral. Trump wants rates lowered to encourage economic growth, counter to the Fed’s mandate. There’s no legal ground for Trump to fire Powell unless he wants to alter the Fed’s charter through Congress. Which, to be frank, is a feasible route given a weakened Republican party unlikely to resist.
Stagflation is just the tip of this iceberg. A deep recession is lying just beneath the surface, and Trump’s undermining of the Fed’s independence would only surface more problems.