Nothing Ever Happens Until Something Actually Happens

Robert Stark

Apr 13, 2024

Iran has been making veiled threats about retaliating against Israel, while US intel has been warning about imminent Iranian retaliation. Since Iran has been so hesitant to attack Israel, many people are saying that this is a nothing burger and will de-escalate. Iran has shown a lot of restraint in the past, including even after the assassination of General Soleimani. It is also notable that Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus was a blatant violation of International Law.

Iran seeks to save face and weaken Israel’s standing while avoiding any direct confrontation or broader regional conflict. However, there is a heightened risk of smaller-scale Iranian attacks escalating. For instance, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seizing an Israeli-linked ship in the Persian Gulf, border skirmishes with Hezbollah, or cyber-attacks. Israel will almost certainly retaliate to any actions taken by Iran or its proxies.

Netanyahu seeks prolonged war, as once the war ends, he is vulnerable to being voted out of office and facing corruption charges. Netanyahu will do anything to drag the US into a direct confrontation with Iran. While war with Iran is not inevitable, this is the closest that the US and Israel have ever been to war with Iran. Perhaps much more so than after Soleimani was killed.