Today Elon Musk tweeted out ‘demographics is destiny’. This, of course, was the mantra of the Alt Right in its 1.0 version between 2014 and 2017. To be clear, Musk does not mean it in the Alt Right sense, he means it in the sense of total population. He believes that population needs to keep growing; I think he’s wrong. The Alt Right 1.0, and many people who remain from that milieu, believe that racial percentages will dictate the fates of their nations. For example, that because the white population is below birth replacement and immigrant populations are above birth replacement, the destiny of their nations is something like white genocide unless something is done. Again, I believe they are wrong, at least in this sense. This will likely be a shock to most readers, who I imagine believe that ‘demographics are destiny’ in either the Musk version or in the Alt Right version, or both. Musk’s argument is about population growth as opposed to depopulation; this will have to wait for another article because here I wish to explain why I disagree with the Alt Right 1.0 thesis.

First, however, an important caveat. ‘Demographics is destiny’ is not the same as the acknowledgement that ‘race is real’. This was another Alt Right 1.0 thesis which gets tangled up in the first one. For example, if you change the population of a city – let us say, Detroit – from white to black, then the results speak for themselves: the crime-rate and all other indicators will change from those typical of whites to those typical of blacks. Likewise, if cockneys move out of East London and into Essex, and if South Asians move into East London, then Essex becomes more cockney and East London becomes more South Asian. And, likewise, the crime rate and all other indicators will change from those typical of cockneys to those typical of South Asians. However, in neither case does this mean that the whites are done for: all that has happened is that they have moved from one place to another and temporarily surrendered their former home to another group. I will return to this later.

The classic version of ‘demographics is destiny’, in its Alt Right incarnation, came from an analysis of the US electoral map. Democrats import foreigners who give them votes in exchange for gibs: the calculus is the same for Labour in this country. As the demographics of each state change, so too does the colour of the state from red to blue. This was demographics as electoral destiny. Kentucky is still over 85% white, for example, and it has reliably voted for Mitch McConnell since 1985! Wahoo, what a result for Kentucky! Incidentally, Kentucky has a higher crime rate than Michigan, even though Detroit is in Michigan. The murder-rate of Louisville, KY (75% white) is 23 per 100,000 which is 13.5 times more violent than Sadiq Khan’s London (49.6% white, 1.7 per 100,000). Of course, dear reader, we both know why that is! 76% of those homicides in Louisville are by the 22.2% black population, whereas the non-whites in London tend to be of a different stock who typically have crime rates about the same as or lower than whites. But the point, if it is not already obvious, is that electoral destiny is basically meaningless. I need not rant about the Tories or the GOP: if it is not already obvious to you that these are your absolute enemies, perhaps even worse than the left, then you’re in the wrong place. Incidentally, three of the whitest states – Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire – are also among the most Democrat and most liberal. Those are the sorts of places where a Republican like Susan Collins is basically a liberal democrat in all but name.

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