Welcome to the August 9th, 2022 edition of the Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar premium newsletter. The live show is only a month away, so make sure to get your tickets here: https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0E005CD6DBFF6D47. If you would like to buy a bundle of tickets please email james@breakingpoints.com.

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Breaking News from last night broke that the FBI raided the Mar-a-Lago compound of former President Donald Trump. He confirmed in a lengthy statement that the FBI executed a search warrant in his Florida home and condemned it as political persecution. Trump attacked the operation for being conducted with the intent of preventing a 2024 run and derailing conservatives in the 2022 midterms. He was not present when the raid took place in the morning, instead spending the day at Trump tower in New York. The FBI raid is linked to an investigation of how Trump handled classified materials at Mar-a-Lago last year, where he notoriously flushed potentially incriminating evidence down the toilet. A search warrant for the FBI to go after Trump would have needed approval at the highest levels of government, but White House officials apparently had no prior knowledge of it. The FBI raid is most likely connected to the Department of Justice’s investigation of the January 6th Capitol riot being led by Attorney General Merrick Garland. The AG did not express hesitation about investigating or indicting Trump in a recent interview with NBC News. Just last month, the National Archives had to retrieve boxes of records from Mar-a-Lago that were improperly removed. The classified records obtained by the FBI are estimated to be 100 pages, and the inquiry about how Trump handled them is at the center of the investigation. There is no precise legal avenue for preventing Trump from running for President again, even though Democrats will get their hopes up. When more information comes out about the FBI raid, it will certainly be covered on this show.

The responses to the announcement that Trump’s compound was raided by the FBI were quite extraordinary. Fox News host Jesse Watters deflected to denounce liberal scandals and Georgia firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) Tweeted an upside down American flag. Greene had other Tweets throughout the night about defunding the FBI and standing with Donald Trump. Conservative media personality Candace Owens called for the FBI to be dissolved and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon called for him to announce a 2024 run. Liberals and ‘Never-Trump’ observers watched Republicans fury with joy and some predictions of their own. Ex Trump lawyer Michael Cohen was enjoying the scene, and one liberal activist predicted Trump would end up in Guantanamo Bay. Emotions were riding extremely high during the announcement and Twitter was lighting up throughout the night. It may seem trivial, but Twitter is the forum where elite discourse takes place between all political factions. Responses to the raid by politicians could end up being consequential depending on how the investigation goes. All eyes will be on the FBI and DOJ to see if they have a real case against Trump this time.

Every conservative commentator, lawmaker, and GOP institution had an instant reaction to the FBI’s raid of Mar-a-Lago. Among them were House Speaker Kevin McCarthy who criticized the weaponized politicization of the DOJ. Republicans will conduct oversight of the department and follow the facts to make sure no stone is left unturned. He told AG Garland to preserve his documents and clear his calendar. The Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee compared the raid to a third world country and that the FBI should have better things to do. Their reaction was echoed by many other conservatives as shown by the previous block. If the FBI does not have a criminal case against Trump, he will be martyred and the agency will be the subject of intense scrutiny. This is an unprecedented situation that will put Trump back at the front of the midterm ballot and energize the GOP base like never before. Questions have been asked about how this affects Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is now the betting favorite to win the Republican nomination. He issued a strong statement in defense of Trump, and Florida Republicans are pushing DeSantis to do more to protect Trump. Conservative elites have been hoping the party moves on from Trump because of his uniquely divisive nature, ‘stop the steal’ theories, and electability concerns. When Trump is under attack, the entire conservative world unites behind him and this time is no different. Instead of waiting for any facts to come out, the entire conservative movement lined up behind Trump with the assumption that this is an unfounded political attack. The reaction ensures that Donald Trump is the current leader of the GOP and will be for years to come. Breaking Points will wait for all the facts to play out instead of participating in the histrionics.

Liberal pundits and Democratic party figures are celebrating the Schumer-Manchin deal by posting memes of a triumphant Joe Biden. The ‘dark Brandon’ memes invert the online right’s masculine energy and edgy memes of Donald Trump while recapturing the ‘let’s go Brandon’ chant. Its aesthetics mimic those used in ‘Ultra MAGA’ memes promoting former President Trump after the phrase became a popular buzzword for liberals expressing fear of Republicans. They typically depict Biden with red lasers in his eyes, confidently smiling in front of a dark background. Others have put Biden with yellow lasers in his eyes sitting on the iron throne from HBO’s hit series Game of Thrones. The very online references in these memes might seem strange, but the messaging campaign has already reached the administration. Multiple Biden spokespeople have used them in Tweets generating buzz and controversy. A meme of Biden inspired by Batman film The Dark Knight Rises has a bat symbol being mistaken for an old Nazi sign. The image was posted by the White House Deputy Press Secretary on Twitter and has not been taken down. Conservative are not amused by the meme messaging being promoted by Democrats online. Some believe it is a distraction from the low poll numbers and ill conceived legislation just passed by Democrats. Typically, informal online posting by government officials and high brow commentators has drawn the ire of liberals because Donald Trump made it fashionable on the right. Years of complaints about decorum and the inability of elite liberals to take jokes are routinely mocked by online conservatives. Eschewing formality and behavioral norms online was a speciality of Trump’s that liberals now appear to be embracing in these memes. They could work with Democrats who are very online, and young people who engage in politics in unique ways.

MSNBC star primetime anchor Rachel Maddow opened up in an interview with Vanity Fair about why she is stepping back from nightly news. She signed a large contract with MSNBC to scale back to one night per week unless needed for special coverage. Maddow has chosen to pursue other projects and foray into other media spaces. The long 60 hour weeks and extensive research required for nightly news can take a toll for anchors like Maddow who are very hands on in the process. She talked at length about the challenges of the work, health problems, her new projects, and other subjects. Most intriguing of all was her statement about the debunked Steele Dossier that led to the Robert Mueller investigation known as Russiagate. She downplayed her coverage of it and defended her views about Russiagate. No Americans were indicted for ‘collusion’ or conspiracy to collude by the Mueller investigation. Maddow spent many segments on her show promoting the claims of the Dossier and touting its findings. She portrayed it as a smoking gun and sure fire indication Trump colluded with the Russians to win the 2016 election. In reality, the Dossier’s central claims were roundly disproven by evidence gathered during the Mueller investigation. Maddow’s feverish coverage of Russiagate generated a ratings boom for her show, and made her the subject of much ridicule.

In Krystak’s monologue, she considered the ‘stop the steal’ skepticism of election results as something that could backfire for the GOP in the midterms. Trump mentioned again at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) that he won in 2020 and could run again. The election issue is the most animating for Republican base voters and conservative activists. Conspiracy dabblers won almost every GOP primary in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and elsewhere. Secretary of State candidates running on an America First platform have said they would not have certified the 2020 results in their state. GOP candidates have been made to profess adherence to these theories as a litmus test more so than any issue position or criticism of Biden. The party voters tell pollsters that inflation is their biggest issue, but in order to receive Trump’s endorsement to win the primary a candidate has to abide by the election conspiracies. It is hard to motivate people to vote in a general election if they do not believe their vote will not be counted fairly. Republican attacks on mail-in ballots have made their voters unlikely to use them. A large percentage of conservative voters will go to the polls on election day, making campaigns spend more on turnout operations with less certainty on how successful they will be. Inevitably, some percentage of voters will be unable to turnout because of weather, traffic, work, or other changes of plans. If every result they dislike is deemed fake by the GOP, some voters might decide not to bother with participating. Georgia Republican operatives have worried about this happening after Trump narrowly lost the state in 2020 and has said he actually won it. Turnout numbers decreased after Trump’s skepticism enabled Democrats to triumph in two decisive Senate elections.

Trump and his cronies went all in on ‘stop the steal’ claims and called on Georgia Republicans to boycott elections as a means of protest. They chanted ‘lock him up’ about the Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who was able to overcome Trump’s wrath in a GOP primary. The 2022 Senate races in swing states will be close in the same way, with Nate Silver giving Democrats a 60% chance of winning. Constantly messaging to the base that elections are faker could end up backfiring big time.

After the monologue, Krystal and Saagar talk about how the midterm landscape has shifted since May, and what it means now that Trump is on the ballot. All that matters for Republican voters is Trump, and while they do not blindly believe him, they really support him. The base punishes those who cross Trump like Rep. Peter Meijer in Michigan. On the margins, the reliance on election day voting could harm Republicans given that the midterm landscape is much closer now than it was. There has been so much effort from professional class Republicans in Washington to move on from Trump, and none of it is rooted in reality.

In his monologue today, Saagar explains why conservative operatives and candidates are no longer talking to the mainstream media. It began with Trump’s response to the Access Hollywood tape, where he posted a video on Twitter instead of conducting an interview with a news network. Calls for Trump to drop out from the Republican establishment were coming and the media feverishly waited for his first public comments. He ended up releasing the video and only addressing it during the second debate with Hillary Clinton. The story happened without any input from mainstream media and Trump ended up surviving it. He did not need them to put his message out there and it played without Trump having to speak to anyone. The internet opened up a range of possibilities on how politicians could interact with the media. Now this power is being felt down the ballot after the Trump presidency, and the media is lashing out. It began with a Washington Post profile of DeSantis Press Secretary Christina Pushaw, who is known for her fiery behavior online. She is known for fights with journalists and is open about her contempt for mainstream media. The media spins combativeness as Republicans not wanting to answer questions, which has some truth to it. What they struggle with is how the media has become an arm of the Democratic party and Republicans no longer need them. They can talk to friendly right wing outlets to broadcast their message instead of dealing with hostile political opponents. If a crazy statement or notable comment is made on right wing media, the liberal mainstream outlets will cover it anyway.

Mainstream media reporters are increasingly barred from conservative events and prevented from speaking to conservative politicians. If liberals need to cover them, the conservative media is available online to be combed through. No need for Republicans to worry about how they get portrayed when it is beneficial to have a hostile relationship with the press. Joe Biden has used a similar tactic in his behavior with the press. There is no incentive for Biden to do a challenging interview when he can go to safe liberal outlets instead. The entire press will watch it and cover it if there is anything important to broadcast. Internet decentralization has exposed the press as agents of the establishment wing of the Democratic party. Their virtual monopoly on exchange of information is gone, and both sides are using it to their benefit. Online content can reach larger audiences than the legacy outlets without all the baggage that comes with them. In the meantime, the mainstream press will fight to the death to keep their grip on power over information flows and anyone who poses a threat to them.

After the monologue, Krystal and Saagar talk about how politicians do not have to answer tough questions if they don’t have to. It is not just DeSantis, Biden has been refusing tough interviews throughout his tenure. Some politicians still try to spread their message and persuade the audience in hostile environments but it is much easier to do otherwise. Until politicians can be rewarded for taking on difficult interviews again, they will not expose themselves to it.

Krystal and Saagar are joined by liberal national security lawyer Bradley P. Moss to discuss the Trump raid by the FBI. He is an expert on classified documents and has been following Trump investigations closely. When Trump was taken out of office, he lost the Presidential authority on classified documents after he left the White House. He took classified documents marked as such to a basement in Mar-a-Lago. This is a problem because they are the property of the United States under the Presidential Records Act. They are needed for archives, libraries, and any investigations. Documents properly marked as classified cannot be carried or transported by a private citizen. They found 15 boxes of documents back in February and now the FBI has uncovered more from their raid at Mar-a-Lago. To get the documents declassified, he cannot simply declare they are changed. The documents have to be signed and marked off on every single page to actually turn the documents into a declassified document. Until the process is done, the documents have to be treated as classified documents. Kash Patel, a lawyer in Trump’s orbit, has blamed the WH Counsel for slow moving the process to declassify. The question becomes whether his gross negligence rises to the level of prosecution by the Department of Justice. Provisions that fall under the Espionage Act about someone with lawful access to classified information that leads to transport to unsecured locations can be prosecuted. There is an intent requirement that would have to be investigated with these records, especially if the DOJ chooses to indict a former President. They will need a rock solid case of intent and complete negligence because of how politicized any prosecution will be. Patience is needed to see if any indictments will come out of this, especially because most instances of mishandling classified documents are carried out by mid level bureaucrats. Egregious cases can lead to indictments, but usually internal punishment of termination or revoking security clearances is what takes place. When notable cases were prosecuted, the individuals plead guilty to misdemeanors and received minimal punishment. The possibility of Trump going to prison is very unlikely, especially because of who he is.

Thank you for reading the latest Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar newsletter. Remember to buy your tickets and send feedback via email or YouTube comments. The next full show will be Thursday and enjoy the Wednesday content in the meantime!