By Elliot Smith, CNBC
With President Donald Trump refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power in the event that he loses the election and clashes already unfolding in some states, political analysts are uniquely fearful as November approaches.
Asked last week to commit to conceding should the Nov. 3 election go in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, Trump doubled down on his unfounded claims about mail-in ballots leading to widespread voter fraud in justifying his reluctance.
He reiterated this during Tuesday night’s chaotic presidential debate, calling mail-in voting a “disaster” and again suggesting that he would not accept a result that goes against him.
By Paul Rosenberg, Salon
Not even the most perceptive academic could have timed the publication of a 10-year research project this perfectly. LSU political scientist Nathan Kalmoe’s new book, “With Ballots and Bullets: Partisanship and Violence in the American Civil War” is being published in this overheated election season, and that’s just an accident. Ten years back, no one would have imagined the recently reported Transition Integrity Project projection of “both street-level violence and political impasse” in all four war-game scenarios it conducted for the 2020 election. (The full report is here.) Such possibilities weren’t on anyone’s radar — except for his.
William S. Lind
I expect President Trump to be re-elected, probably by a large margin, and the Republicans to hold the Senate and retake the House. Why? Because by this point the number of Americans who are angry is greater than the number who are scared. The Democrats are the party of fear and the Republicans are the party of anger. So the latter will win.
But what if fear does win out and Biden becomes President while the Democrats hold the House and take the Senate? Biden is an old-line Establishment politician who is unlikely to do anything radical on his own initiative. But he will be under pressure from the “woke” alt-Left, radicals in the House, and his own Vice-President to do some very stupid things. If he yields, or if we suddenly find ourselves with a hard-Left broad from California running the country, the Democrats could take some actions that would rip the country apart.
The run-up to the coming US elections has seen an America more divided than ever before. As President Trump seeks re-election, national security observers in America watch the rise of the far-right with alarm and say politics, conspiracy and extreme right-wing ideology are all stirring the pot of violence.
Tech companies have long argued that users should be able to judge content for themselves – but critics say social media giants such as Facebook and Twitter have a responsibility to make sure their platforms are not being used to incite violence or spread misinformation. Facebook says it has a plan to take aggressive measures if that happens during this year’s U.S. presidential election.
White supremacist and nationalist groups pose the greatest threat, spurred by a summer of protests, some experts say.
Today our own Communications Director Don Feder interviews Phillip Jauregui of the Judicial Action Group on Amy Coney Barrett filling the Supreme Court vacancy.
Fierce partisan divisions and social upheaval in the United States are feeding fears of large-scale political violence after the 2020 presidential election. Some describe the expected disorder as a form of domestic terrorism. Others are using the term “insurgency” to describe it, while some people are raising fears of conflict along the lines of a civil war. Join us as we engage in a reality check on the magnitude of the problem we are likely to face.
If true, this is almost like the good old days of the “propaganda by the deed” era when anarchists were actual badasses.
By Laura Widener, American Military News
One of the ringleaders behind an FBI-thwarted kidnapping plot against Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was an outspoken anarchist, video evidence shows.
The FBI charged six people on Thursday involved in a plot to kidnap Whitmer and “target and kill police officers” over aspirations of overthrowing the government and creating a new society, Detroit Free Press reported.
One of those six individuals, Brandon Caserta, posted a series of videos to his YouTube account in which he promoted anarchist ideology while posing in front of an anarchist flag. The social media platform removed his videos, but producer and director Robby Starbuck reposted the videos to his Twitter account.
In one video, Caserta referred to police as “a violent gang that has each other’s back,” adding that they are “enemies” of freedom.
This is my assessment of the recent piece by Peter Gelderloos at Crimethinc, “Preparing for Electoral Unrest and a Right-Wing Power Grab.” The Crimethinc article is a great companion piece to the recent commentary by It’s Going Down (which I critique here) and Three-Way Fight (which I had a brief comment on here with further elaboration here). It’s also interesting to compare these far-left/anarchist/anti-fascist analyses with that of fourth-generation warfare theorist Bill Lind from the far-right.
By Keith Preston
The main things I would add to or dissent from the Gelderloos analysis would be these: I don’t think there is any ruling class faction that desires the restoration of pre-civil rights era race relations, and views like that are very marginal even on the periphery. The ruling class is opposed to minorities that resist “system values” and as class divisions are widening that has racial implications as well, but it seems the overwhelming majority of the ruling class favors a kind of technocratic multicultural statism for many practical/pragmatic reasons. I have an article about that coming out soon. And leading “right-wing” street fighter groups frequently include minorities, even in leadership positions. Their “racial reductionism” is a longstanding criticism I have of the left-anarchist/anti-racist types. White supremacists are the most marginal sector within the far-right and are often in conflict with other far-right sectors, including some that are very similar in other ways. Most of the far-right views white supremacists in the same way that the far-left views anti-Semitic black racialists.
A comprehensive fourth-generation warfare analysis of the present situation from a paleoconservative perspective.
By William S. Lind
Mobs loot, burn, and vandalize while politicians advocate defunding the police. A commune was established in Seattle and turned into Lord of the Flies while government did nothing. Blacks demand equal treatment from police despite a violent crime rate many times greater than that of whites, and mainstream media will not report honestly the differences in crime rates. “Wokeness” spreads among idle youth who flunked English 101. What is going on?
What is going on, right here on American soil, is war; a new kind of war that is also very old, waged by entities other than states. I call it Fourth Generation War and, to paraphrase Leon Trotsky, you may not be interested in Fourth Generation War—but it is interested in you.
In the 1980s, when working with the Marine Corps, I came up with an intellectual framework I call the Four Generations of Modern War. Military historian Martin van Creveld’s books The Rise and Decline of the State and The Transformation of War are foundational works in my framework, which flows from one of the defining elements of the modern age, the rise of the state.
By Peter Gelderloos
It is vital that anarchist strategy be situated: that we see strategy not as a chessboard from above, as in the authoritarian worldview, but as a perspective on the situation we inhabit, looking outward with our own eyes.
Nonetheless, we should not make the mistake of assuming that everyone we see on the other side of the barricades, those we are fighting against, are on the same side or want the same thing. In the conflict that is building up pressure around the US elections, combative fascist organizations want a victory in the streets, whereas the Republican Party wants a victory in the courts. They each see the other as a naïve ally but also as a means to an end. They will each try to pull the conflict into their chosen terrain. Of course, the conflict will occur in both terrains simultaneously, but which one is dominant, the relative degree of their strength, will have a huge effect on events.
What follows is a brief approximation of the strength of the different sectors that will be on the other side of the barricades, and the direction they will try to pull in. I will try to use an evidence-based approach that assumes grand social machinations leave a footprint, in contrast to conspiracy theory thinking that assumes the motivations and conniving of important sectors of society can be entirely hidden from view.
If there is one truism about Americans, it is that Americans do everything half-assed. American fascists are half-assed fascists. American communists are half-assed communists. American religious fundamentalists are half-assed fundamentalists. American anarchists are half-assed anarchists. Groups like Antifa or BLM are rookie leaguers compared to insurrectionary groups in other nations or even from the American past, like the Black Panthers and the Weather Underground. The BPP would get into hours-long shootouts with the pigs, and the WU bombed the US capitol building. Has Antifa or BLM done anything comparable?
By Jillian Kay Melchior
Wall Street Journal
What is antifa? “An idea, not an organization,” Joe Biden said during Tuesday’s debate. “When a bat hits you over the head, that’s not an idea,” President Trump countered. “Antifa is a dangerous, radical group.” Both men are right—Mr. Biden that antifa is foremost an ideology, and Mr. Trump about its propensity for violence.
Some adherents I’ve interviewed describe antifa as a radical leftist political affiliation or movement. They pride themselves on being leaderless and not hierarchical, and “membership” is more a matter of self-profession than enlistment. The core belief is a duty to oppose “fascists,” “bigots” and the “alt-right,” though these terms are seldom defined. Some adherents fall back on a definist fallacy: Antifa is short for “antifascist,” so anyone who doesn’t support it must be pro-fascist.
The lack of formal structure and leadership doesn’t mean antifa is unorganized. Individual activists often issue “calls for action” on social media, urging like-minded people to join them in the streets. The rallying cry is boosted by anarchists, socialists, social-justice activists, far-left nonprofits, clergy and others—some of whom call themselves antifa and some not. Turnout at protests or rallies is spontaneous, and to the extent that there are antifa groups, they’re small and intimate. “The phrase that leftists use is ‘affinity groups,’ ” says Mark Bray, author of “Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook” a sympathetic history. “They are basically people who know each other well and can plan to attend actions together and sometimes will have a division of tasks.”
Do you own a gun? Would you ever consider owning one? The United States is split into thirds on that subject.
Just under 30% of American adults currently own a gun. A little more than a third say they might own one in the future, and the other third can’t imagine ever having one.
In April 2020, the RAND Corporation published a long-term study tracking gun ownership in all 50 states, from 1980 to 2016. They combined survey-based estimates with other data indicative of gun ownership — shooting death records, gun-related magazine subscriptions, background check submissions and more — to determine the percentage of adults in each state who live in a household with at least one gun.
We’ve ranked the states by those percentages. Keep going to see where your state falls.
Another fourth-generation warfare incident?
A California woman has been charged with attempted murder after driving through a group of dueling protesters during a “Caravan for Justice” event Saturday afternoon.
The dueling protests held in Yorba Linda, about 35 miles east of Los Angeles, quickly boiled over into animosity as Black Lives Matter demonstrators clashed with Donald Trump supporters.
“Approximately 30 minutes after the protests began, we began to receive reports of physical altercations occurring between the two protest groups, including at least one individual who was pepper-sprayed by another protestor,” the Orange County Sheriff’s Department said in a statement.
Another faction fight in the brewing civil war?
By Nicole Acevedo
An Iowa gathering of over 100 people from motorcycle clubs turned deadly early Saturday morning with a shooting that killed at least one person and left several others wounded. Police in Waterloo, a city about 55 miles northwest of Cedar Rapids, said they responded to a “shots fired report” at about 3:17 a.m at a site where the bikers were gathered. Upon arrival, officers found about a dozen people who had been injured or shot, said Waterloo Police Chief Joel Fitzgerald at a press conference Saturday morning. It appeared that “some kind of confrontation” at the location escalated into a shooting, he said.
By Joshua Bote, Matt Mencarini and N’dea Yancey-Bragg
USA TODAY NETWORK
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Protesters demanding justice for Breonna Taylor continued to flood cities throughout the United States, three days after a grand jury declined to indict three officers directly connected to Taylor’s death.
In Louisville, 22 people were arrested late Friday night for violating a 9 pm. curfew, has been in place since Wednesday. Many were charged with unlawful assembly and failure to disperse, all misdemeanors.
At one point, golf balls were thrown at Louisville protesters leaving the First Unitarian Church where they had gathered as “sanctuary” after curfew.
Some more fourth-generation war. A civil war in the modern United States would be one of history’s biggest messes. It would be like the Lebanese civil war in the 1970s and 1980s with dozens of factions pitted against each other, only it would be worse because a large number of people would be involved, and with more sophisticated weaponry.
New York Daily News
A California man was killed in a shootout with deputies in Templeton, Calif., the San Luis Obispo Sheriff’s Office said in a statement Thursday evening.
On Friday, the sheriff’s department identified the man as 38-year-old Christopher Michael Straub of Templeton.
According to Tony Cipolla, a spokesperson for the department, Straub was a “known member of a white supremacist gang,” and he was being investigated by the Sheriff’s Gang Task Force when the shooting occurred.
Straub “had a significant criminal history,” according to Cipolla. He had previously been booked 28 times in jails across the state, including two incarcerations in state prison.
The anti-jerk off club named after a Disney character goes to Portland, presumably to get into a fight with Antifa. What could possibly go wrong? My advice to anyone interested in dissident politics is to avoid either participating in these groups or getting into confrontations with them. Protest all you want, burn down pig stations, loot Wal-Mart, whatever. But these street fights between rival cosplaying gangs of Weimar reenactors are the biggest waste of time ever.
By Cleve Wootson
Some more fourth-generation warfare?
Video of a police officer being forcefully struck on the back of the head with a baseball bat has attracted national attention after protests swept across the U.S. in the wake of the verdict in the Breonna Taylor case.
The clip showed an officer with the Seattle Police Department having fallen to the ground from his bicycle. A protester is then seen throwing a cone at him before the officer reached for and fired pepper spray into the crowd.
Another demonstrator then approached from behind and struck the officer on the back of the head with what police described as a “metal baseball bat,” hitting his helmet.
The officer continued to aim pepper spray at the crowd as he dragged his bicycle towards the line of police.
A pickup truck hit a protester Thursday night in Hollywood, California, and moments later a second vehicle hit a car participating in the same protest as it tried to leave the area, according to the Los Angeles Police Department.
The “largely peaceful” group of protesters began marching around 7 p.m. local time with only isolated reports of vandalism, but shortly after 9 p.m., things turned violent when a blue pickup truck traveling on Sunset Boulevard maneuvered through the crowd and became involved in an altercation, according to authorities. The driver of the truck attempted to get away from the situation, but police said he struck a protester standing in the street.
The protester hit by the truck was transported to a local hospital with minor injuries.
Would it be accurate to say that a low-intensity civil war is no underway?
LOUISVILLE, Kentucky, Sept 23 (Reuters) – Two police officers were shot and wounded late on Wednesday in Louisville, Kentucky, during protests ignited by a grand jury decision that civil rights activists decried as a miscarriage of justice in the fatal police shooting of Breonna Taylor.
The grand jury ruled that two white policemen will not be prosecuted in connection with the death of Taylor, a Black medical worker shot in her own apartment, because their use of force during an ill-fated raid on her home was justified, but a third officer was charged with endangering her neighbors.