This is the video and transcript of my recent conversation with Chris Nicholson on how the war in Ukraine will end. The video includes a map we review as we discuss the battlefield situation. See here for the audio of the conversation in podcast form. The transcript below is lightly edited for clarity and begins after the show notes and links.

Show notes:

Chris Nicholson is back on to talk about the war in Ukraine, this time with a specific focus on how the conflict might end. We start by discussing the Ukrainian capture of Kherson, and Chris puts forth the theory that Russia pulled back from the city in order to focus on the capture of the entirety of Donetsk province.

We go through different scenarios of how the war might move towards its end, whether through a Ukrainian victory or something of a stalemate, which is the best Chris believes the Russians can hope for in the short- to medium-term. Over the course of the conversation, we realize that Chris and I have very different intuitions about the likelihood of the West pulling its support for Ukraine. I think that if the war ends anytime soon, it’ll be because Ukraine wants to move towards peace, while Chris thinks that the US and Europe might nudge it in that direction. In my view, Ukraine has a blank check as long as it’s willing to fight and die. As I told Chris, I defer to him on battlefield questions, but I trust my own judgment on American politics.

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