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There Goes the Canadian Government

by Peter Zeihan on December 26, 2024

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to demote former Finance Minister and deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland has triggered a new round of speculation over his political future.

Trudeau’s Liberal Party currently rules as a minority government. While this has emerged as the norm in Federal politics in recent decades, the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP)’s decision to remove their support from Trudeau in September has made his position all the more precarious. While the NDP declined to move toward a vote of no confidence in the Fall, Freeland’s exit is equally unsettling as it is exciting for those within government.

It’s not just that Freeland is easily one of the most effective minister in Canada’s modern history; nor the fact that Freeland is one of the most intelligent members of any global government. She is. But Freeland has been part of a very loyal cabinet of an increasingly unpopular Prime Minister–until that loyalty was not returned.

On Monday the 16th, Freeland released a public letter not only announcing her resignation, but–in typical Canadian fashion–effectively calling her former boss an out-of-his-league idiot. But politely. Canadian-ly.

Those within the Liberal Party and without have smelled the blood in the water. Part of Trudeau’s ability to hold onto the reins of party leadership has been the lack of a clear and effective challenger. That may very well be changing.

As Canada faces a bevy of upcoming challenges, chief among them Trump’s tariff threats and USMCA/NAFTA2.0 renegotiation talks. Not having Freeland at the helm of managing both processes is terrifying for most serious folks within Canada’s political establishment, and it should be.

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