I Was Right

The Dish did not lead readers astray on what was really happening in 2024.

“To see what is in front of our nose is a constant struggle.”

No one who writes about the world in real time can get everything right. (I, for one, published an e-book on the Iraq War called “I Was Wrong.”) And yet that’s what journalism is: the truth merely for le jour. It’s not the highest but far from the lowliest profession, and it seems to me that surveying the past year, the Dish deserves some plaudits.

A year ago this week, for example, I made five core claims: “Donald Trump is likely to be the next president of the United States; Ukraine will never win back its lost territory; the two-state solution in Israel/Palestine is dead; DEI is incompatible with a free society; and Joe Biden is too old to be re-elected.”

Not so shabby a year later.

Perhaps the most glaringly obvious was Biden’s age problem. In September 2023, I urged him to leave the stage. A year ago I wrote, “The idea that this 81-year-old man could command the country in four years’ time is as delusional as the blithe self-confidence of his team.” That’s long before Ezra Klein cleared his throat. Yesterday the WSJ ran a follow-up to its groundbreaking revelation of Biden’s decrepitude earlier this year. (It tells you something about the state of legacy media that the reporters were harangued for it at the time.) This detail leapt out at me:

In the spring of 2021, a national security official explained to another aide why a meeting needed to be rescheduled. “He has good days and bad days, and today was a bad day so we’re going to address this tomorrow,” the former aide recalled the official saying.

And that was in the first months of his term! The Dish thrice called for his withdrawal so that someone other than Kamala Harris could take the helm. But nah. Biden’s vanity and his wife’s cunning, arrogance, and mendacity won the day.

A year ago I also gave the Democrats some campaign advice: “The way to beat Trump is to compete on policy grounds — controlling mass migration, intensifying law enforcement, touting legislative wins like the CHIPS Act — rather than to disqualify him on grounds that the American public has largely rejected.” So, of course, Harris and her moronic advisers tried to disqualify Trump on grounds that the American public had largely rejected.

Then there’s immigration, an issue whose salience I’ve been banging on about for several years now. Many readers objected. “Bottom line: America’s immigration problem isn’t that we have too many people trying to get here; it’s that we have too few,” one wrote in October 2021. Another wrote six months earlier, “Why only rant about Latinos from failed states seeking a legal entry? It makes you appear racist.” The elite view — what intimidated many, including me, from speaking up — was that anyone opposing mass immigration is a bigot. Many Dishheads agreed. But, whatever your view, I was right about the issue’s overarching importance, wasn’t I? Biden’s choice — and it was a choice — to expedite the entrance of millions of illegal migrants, and to insist that the border was secure the whole time, made his re-election impossible.

It was made impossible because of the sheer scale of the new migration. And again, the Dish constantly cited the data showing the biggest-ever jump in immigration over four years, and the highest foreign-born population in America ever. I insisted that any debate without this context was misleading. And yet only once the election was over did the NYT bring itself to say the same thing.

And the issue you’ve been most diligent in telling me to shut up about — the transing of children with few safeguards — also turned out to be a big deal. Trump’s ads on Harris being for “they/them” became the most effective he deployed in moving voters against Harris. This year also saw the Cass Review, which confirmed all my worries about the politicization of medicine and the toll of transqueer ideology on gay and lesbian kids.

Harris herself? I stick with my first take: “Harris is one of the weakest and wokest Democratic candidates there is.” I didn’t fall for the “joy” fad and I explained how Trump was obviously winning the campaign war: “The more you are exposed to Harris’ vacuousness, the more the whole fakery of it all sinks in, and the less conceivable she becomes as a president.” It does seem inconceivable now, doesn’t it?

And wokeness? “How many times can you use the word ‘woke’? Week after week. Column after column. It’s the same pabulum every issue,” wrote one reader. In fact, nothing stirred opposition more than my insistence that the top-down imposition of the concepts of critical theory on race and sex was not just a campus sideshow but the new establishment. But what I wrote almost seven years ago is essentially the consensus now. BLM was built on a lie and became a racket; Ibram X Kendi’s anti-racism center was revealed as yet another scam; and the rancid racism of the Ivy League — especially its toleration of anti-semitism — was exposed in the Congress.

Today, the liberal establishment wants to convince you that woke is dead. In the words of Democratic Party hack, Jon Chait: “The [woke] era lasted almost exactly 10 years. The final cause of death was the reelection of Donald Trump.” Really? Here’s a a smattering of pieces by Chait’s Atlantic colleagues since Trump’s reelection: “Misogyny Comes Roaring Back,” “Since the Election, I Fear Men,” “What Can Women Do Now?”, “What the Men of the Internet Are Trying to Prove,” and “The Three Pillars of the Bro-Economy.” Never mind that female voters moved toward Trump in 2024, compared to both 2020 and 2016.

The Atlantic also enforces DEI ruthlessly in its hiring processes. This year, it boasted that “roughly 46 percent of 35 new hires identified as people of color and 71 percent identified as women”? Is Chait predicting that The Atlantic will stop their systemic race and sex discrimination now that Trump is elected? Please. DEI is their religion.

Or take the trans issue. Have the Democrats moved from their extremist position — a complete end to biological sex in law and society, an end to single-sex competitive sports, and the transing of children with almost no safeguards at all? The one congressman who suggested there might even be a debate was disowned by his own staffers. Kamala insists her values have not changed. The US medical establishment and the Biden administration are still ignoring the Cass Review. Moderate liberal Jesse Singal was inundated with death threats after joining Bluesky, the new redoubt of the online woke.

And CRT? Kendi is still operating his scam; the plagiarism charge against Robin DiAngelo was dismissed; Nikole Hannah-Jones is still at the NYT; Ta-Nehisi Coates is still writing bestsellers and treated like the Dalai fucking Lama; all the hosts at MSNBC still have their lucrative perches; and BLM is still referred to as an inspiration rather than a massive, counter-productive embarrassment.

Where does this leave us in this strange political and cultural interregnum? Nowhere that certain. I have severe doubts as to Trump’s basic competence. The insanity of the negotiations on the budget are a preview of the chaos to come, with oligarchs calling the shots, and Republicans with a teeny-tiny majority in the House. I don’t know if Trump has a formula to end the war in Ukraine any more than he has “concepts of a plan” for healthcare. I worry that a crude purge of wokeness could backfire. I suspect the migrant roundup will be needlessly cruel and provoke backlash.

It’s possible we are on the verge of real and lasting realignment to the right, as I discussed earlier this year. It’s also possible that Trump will be as feckless this time as last. All of which means next year is anyone’s guess. The core reason for optimism, it seems to me, is that we have a new administration open to new ideas and backed by a solid, if not spectacular, electoral victory. That has cleared the air a little, allowing for a little clarity.

The core reason for pessimism is that Trump is returning, with all the madness that brings with it. Together, we’ll have to figure out in real time what it means, and keep reassessing where we are. Join me. It’s gonna be an epic 2025. We may even get a few things right.

Heads Up

Chris and I are taking our annual Christmas break, but the pods will keep coming! Next week we’ll air our episode with Brianna Wu; and the following week, Mary Matalin. The full Dish will return on January 10.

If you still need a last-minute Christmas gift for a friend or family member, consider a Dish subscription. Choose between an annual gift for $50 or stocking-stuffers of $5 monthlies (and don’t worry, the gift subs don’t auto-renew). Substack lets you craft a custom message, and you can schedule the gift to arrive at any time, e.g. Christmas morning. If you’re already logged in, your credit card info will be loaded automatically, so purchasing a gift is super quick and easy. Merry merry!

New On The Dishcast: Aaron Zelin

What the hell just happened in Syria? We asked one of the sharpest scholars on the subject to give us a primer. Aaron Zelin is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he also directs the “Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map” project. He’s also a visiting research scholar in the politics department at Brandeis and the founder of the website Jihadology. His first book is titled Your Sons Are At Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad, and his forthcoming book covers the history of Syrian jihadism.

We talk about the entire history of Syria, as it faces what could be a turning point. Listen here. There you can find two clips of our convo — on the evil of the Assad dynasty, and the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad. That link also takes you to commentary on our recent episodes with Christine Rosen, David Greenberg, and Anderson Cooper. Readers also discuss the reaction to the CEO killer, and another tells her story of hormone therapy. Plus, a tribute to Truman.

Money Quotes For The Week

“EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE MY FRIEND!!!” – Donald Trump, after dinner with his oligarchs Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.

“In ’16 we got lucky, in ’20 we got screwed, in ’24 we earned it,” – Tony Fabrizio, Trump pollster.

“We used to joke, ‘A hundred men eat breakfast, seven men eat dinner.’ That’s pretty much how it was,” – a Russian assaultman on what the frontlines are like in Ukraine.

“Trump was fated to win, just as Achilles was fated to overcome Hector, because the gods, or if you prefer the forces of cosmic randomness, were on his side, on that day, at that moment. That move not only saved his life by allowing him to escape an assassin’s bullet; it revitalized his chi and set in motion a series of subsequent events that generated a reordering of the entire world,” – David Samuels, in an essay built on Samuels’ pathological hatred of Barack Obama.

“I know people hate to hear this, but Obama’s Syria policy worked. Imagine if we had gone into Syria and made it our quagmire instead of Russia and Iran’s quagmire. Now Assad is gone, and the people who replaced him are better than they would have been 10 years ago,” – Noah Smith.

“When an assassin murdered the UnitedHealthcare CEO and when Hunter Biden was charged with gun crimes, President Biden did not call for gun control,” – Erick Erickson on Biden calling for gun control after the Wisconsin school shooting.

“Dear Giorgia, Let us fight the evil. Together. The light will prevail. We will defeat Mordor!” – Mateusz Morawiecki, the former PM of Polish, inscribing a gift of The Lord of the Rings to Giorgia Meloni, PM of Italy.

“Some poor, phoneless fool is probably sitting next to a waterfall somewhere totally unaware of how angry and scared he’s supposed to be,” – Duncan Trussell.

“What do the creatures [of the world] want? And why do they refuse to tell us?” – Philomena Cunk on her new documentary, Cunk on Life.

The View From Your Window

Kirkwood, California, 10.27 am

Dissents Of The Week

After my column last week on Trump’s dumb luck, a reader writes:

Doesn’t Biden deserve credit for supporting Ukraine and severely weakening Russia? Strange that you completely overlook this detail as you state that you are more in line with Trump’s approach to Ukraine. Because of Biden’s resolve to support Ukraine and fight, Russia is severely diminished and Syria is liberated. Two weeks ago, you were hysterical about long-range missiles being shot into Russia. Seems that Biden’s Russia doctrine is working.

Fair enough. But “hysterical” seems a bit much to me. Yes, Biden deserves credit for helping keep Ukraine in the game. And if a less-than-awful settlement follows, he deserves part of the credit for that.

Another dissent:

A ceasefire in Ukraine is a no-brainer, but the suggestion that Putin’s land grab should be rewarded via annexation of those lands to Russia is outrageous and would represent a violation of the most basic principles of international law that have prevailed since 1948. You can occupy another’s territory indefinitely — as Israel has done in the West Bank and Gaza — but you cannot take it as your own. You can make the case that Crimea is a bit of a gray area, because of how it was gifted to Ukraine by a Soviet dictator, but for Ukraine proper, the international community’s blessing of Russian annexation would be disastrous, especially in its implications for future belligerents’ actions.

Annexation is a vague word. De facto annexation already exists. A ceasefire would entrench it. But I’m not wedded to de jure annexation. Just a recognition of reality on the ground and an end to the slaughter.

Another writes, “You forgot the luckiest thing of all for Trump: avoiding being assassinated by a fraction of an inch.” Good point! Another quotes me:

The illiberalism in this increasingly pagan culture is deepening. We need to call it out more forcefully than ever. Before someone else is shot in the back.

Oh, puh-leeeze! I’m reading Catherine Nixey’s Heretic, her new book about the wildly varied Christianities of the several centuries AD (you should have her on your podcast). If you’re looking for deadly “illiberalism”, look no further than your blessed Church back then, as soon as it accreted enough power. It began dishing death to pagans and heretics alike. And of course it did so more famously during the Inquisition. “Pagan culture” has fuck-all to do with it.

Another fair point. I am of course referring to a Christianity that informs our understanding of individual dignity and rights. My reader is, of course, absolutely right that the Church long rejected the core principles of liberalism; and even since Vatican II, is deeply skeptical.

As always, please keep the dissents coming: dish@andrewsullivan.com.

Mental Health Break

Songs that stop on “stop”:

In The ‘Stacks

• Charlie Sykes is gobsmacked by “pseudo-POTUS” Musk. Or is it Speaker Musk?
• Trump is returning to a very different Middle East.
• Kurds in Syria are fearful after the fall of Assad. Should we lift the sanctions now?
• Why is anti-Semitism so bad in Ireland?
• Biden “enhanced diversity on the bench,” David Lat writes, “but he couldn’t move the federal courts to the left in a major way.”
• Bryce Covert calls Bidenomics a “roaring success.”
• Bo Winegard wonders: “Is it time for conservatives to embrace Trump’s populism?”
• Nate Silver defends Daylight Savings Time in the face of Trump’s threat.
• The first year of President Milei hasn’t been the trainwreck that most predicted.
• As Crystal Mangum recants, Ann Coulter recounts the Duke lacrosse “rape” two decades later.
• Abigail Shrier was right — and her 2020 book vindicated.
• Moved by his mother’s cancer, Coleman Hughes endorses assisted death.
• Adam Coleman, an agnostic until recently, regrets “not introducing my son to God.”
• Lewis Bollard details “ten big wins” against factory farming this year.
• Copyranter rounds up the best ads for a free press.
• Paul Krugman decamps the NYT for Substack. A promotion.

The View From Your Window Contest