Much has changed since I left for New Zealand a few days ago, and I’m sure everyone has already caught up on the Syrian unraveling. So, let’s dive into the history of Syria and the consequences that all this will have, specifically what this means for Russia.
Think of Syria as the runt of the litter. Post-World War I, all the big dogs in the region carved out the valuable territory and what was left..became Syria. No matter which way the cookie crumbles, the Syrian experience was never going to be pretty. The overthrow of the Assad regime is just another chapter in that rough history.
Russia fits into this picture as a decade-long supporter of Assad, which included military support and intervention via the Wagner Group. With Assad’s overthrow, Russia’s position in Syria is fading, and quick. Syria’s collapse means Russia’s influence in the Middle East and Africa will be threatened, since supply routes to these regions will be cut off.
In the coming days and weeks, I would expect to see a series of embarrassing strategic losses for Russia. We’re even seeing Turkey jumping on the opportunity to complicate Russia’s withdrawal from the region. This could even spell trouble for the Russian’s broader military presence.
