Toppling Assad: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Fragile Grip on a Divided Syria

by Peter Zeihan on December 14, 2024

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The Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has succeeded in toppling the Assad regime.

But beating Assad hardly means they’ve succeeded in conquering Syria. In fact, they’ve merely inherited the previous regimes headaches: managing a deeply divided ethno-sectarian landscape, with little hope of a quick or easy consolidation of power.

Adding to the headache is the lack of a reliable, capable foreign partner like Assad had (until, of course, he didn’t).

HTS and whatever group or constellation of entities replaces them will also have to contend with myriad external forces—the US, Israel, and Turkey among them—acting to advance their own interests with impunity.

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