Putin’s big week

In today’s big story, we’re looking at why the recent resurgence of Vladimir Putin and Russia comes at an inopportune time for the markets.

• Markets: Investors brace for another crucial inflation report.
• Tech: Tech companies are conducting layoffs even if they are doing just fine.
• Business: For Gen Zers in the workforce, it’s only about two things: promotions and pay.

The Russian president’s recent string of victories, headlined by his interview with Tucker Carlson, puts him in the strongest position he’s been in for months, writes Business Insider’s Tom Porter.

The Carlson interview, which allowed Putin to reinforce skepticism about sending aid to Ukraine, was followed by a special counsel casting doubt on President Joe Biden’s mental competence.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump said he’d allow Russia to attack NATO countries. (To be clear, a new law makes it extremely difficult for a president to withdraw the US from NATO, writes BI’s Brent D. Griffiths.)

Putin’s successes further complicate a geopolitical situation that has silently loomed over a US economy trying to tiptoe past a recession.

That type of chaos and uncertainty is exactly what Putin seems to have aimed for since the start of his country’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

Russia has played the long game, banking on support for Ukraine to eventually dry up, Tom previously wrote. The approach has worked, as some Republicans have resisted sending additional funding to Ukraine despite the country’s pleas for more.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has long been a vocal critic of the risks of various global conflicts, from rising US-China tension to the Israel-Gaza war. In October, he went as far as to say “this may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

Billionaire investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said at the beginning of the year the market hadn’t priced in these geopolitical risks.

To be fair, the market has plenty to consider these days.

There are concerns over a potential crisis in commercial real estate due to the sector’s mountain of debt. The government’s “unsustainable fiscal path” when it comes to its lending, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And whether the growing divide between the Magnificent 7 stocks and the rest of the S&P 500 is creating the next tech bubble.

And then there’s the question of when the Fed will ultimately cut rates.

It’s made for a difficult environment to forecast, with plenty of experts flip-flopping on predictions over the past year-plus.

Most seem to agree the US economy is on track for a soft landing, but economist David Rosenberg pegs the chances of a recession this year at 85%.

Uncertainty about the state of the Russia-Ukraine war doesn’t help the situation. And it’ll also impact another market X factor: the upcoming US presidential election.

🔔 Before the opening bell: US futures dip in premarket trading as investors wait for January inflation data.

2. Stocks are doing just fine without a rate cut. The market will continue to rise even if the Fed doesn’t end up cutting rates this year, according to Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian. In fact, large-cap companies with lots of cash on hand might benefit from the interest generated if rates stay high.

3. Another crucial inflation report is coming. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release January’s consumer price index this morning. Investors are hoping the monthly print shows a cooldown, which could give the Fed the green light to start slashing interest rates later this year.

2. Generative AI startup Abridge is raising more funding. Abridge is in talks to close a substantial round of funding less than four months after announcing its last fundraise, according to three people with knowledge of the efforts. Its latest round points to a surge in investor interest in medical AI.

3. Amazon-owned One Medical considered spinning off its senior healthcare business. The company will also scale back senior healthcare support roles as part of an effort to save $52 million, people familiar with the matter told BI.

2. Wait, how do you pronounce Temu? In the online ultra-discount retailer’s Super Bowl ads, Temu was curiously pronounced “teh-moo.” The ads’ pronunciation had some viewers confused, and sent search interest in Temu soaring.

3. Paramount’s Super Bowl livestream ran into problems. The entertainment giant acknowledged that “a very small number of subscribers experienced an error due to a technical issue” during the Chiefs-49ers showdown.

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• Today’s earnings: Airbnb, Lyft, and other companies are reporting today.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will speak today at the World Government Summit.
• Ferrari is set to launch its 2024 F1 car.

Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London.

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