An overconfident market?

In today’s big story, we’re looking at why a slew of good news for the stock market doesn’t guarantee a huge 2024.

• Markets: US President Joe Biden’s loss is the market’s gain.
• Tech: The tech trends VCs are most excited about in 2024.
• Business: We identified the top up-and-comers working in entertainment.

Jerome Powell & co. announced they’d continue to hold off on raising interest rates. But the fun didn’t stop there. The fight with inflation seems to be ending, as the Fed is projecting three rate cuts planned for 2024.

The market rejoiced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting an all-time high. A pause in rate hikes is one thing, but an acknowledgment of incoming cuts? Let the good times roll in 2024!

But at least one Wall Street bank has been wondering if the market is getting overconfident. UBS cited the ultra-low levels of the VIX index, a measure of expected stock volatility over the next 30 days, as an example of investors getting ahead of themselves.

“At present, markets are priced for this optimal outcome,” strategists wrote in a note last week.

“The VIX index of implied US equity market volatility, a popular measure of fear in markets, is close to historical lows – pointing to a degree of over-confidence, in our view,” they added.

I don’t mean to come off like a spoilsport, but there are reasons to hold off on penciling in those 2024 returns.

For one, Fed Chair Powell made it clear the projected 2024 cuts are just that, a projection.

“Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain,” Powell said in his opening statement Wednesday.

Translation: Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

And inflation is a thing we all might have to deal with for the foreseeable future. That’s the take from some market experts, including Wall Street guru Jim Grant, who pointed out that the purchasing power we lost from inflation isn’t coming back.

And, as we’ve covered before, rate cuts don’t necessarily equate to instant gratification for the market.

So you might want to hold off on those big spending plans for 2024, at least for a little longer.

🔔 Before the opening bell: US stock futures rise early Thursday after the Fed  signaled interest-rate cuts next year.

2. How to build a massive hedge fund. Bobby Jain is expected to have the largest-ever hedge fund launch. From trading style to staffing, here’s what the longtime Millennium and Credit Suisse executive is telling investors ahead of the fund’s summer launch.

3. The rent is not too damn high. The US median asking rent for November saw a 2.1% year-over-year decline, according to Redfin. That’s the biggest drop since February 2020, and a sign that renters might finally be getting a leg up on landlords.

2. What the VCs are saying about 2024 in tech. AI startups will get a harder look. The IPO market will stay quiet. There will be another startup extinction moment. Large players will go on a shopping spree. These are just some of the trends that will dominate 2024, according to venture capitalists from over 30 firms. Check them all out here.

3. Apple’s beefing up security on the iPhone. Here’s how. The tech giant is using location data to deter thieves trying to change passwords or update security settings on a stolen phone. The new feature, Stolen Device Protection, will require a user’s biometric information if the phone is not in a recognizable location for the user, like a home.

2. TikTok has the news Gen Z can use. The popular app is becoming the generation’s go-to source for news, whether it’s news commentary influencers or on-the-ground “citizen journalists.” It’s the latest shift for an industry that’s already struggling to stay afloat.

3. The first president of the Amazon Labor Union could be pushed out the door. Chris Smalls, a former Amazon warehouse worker who helped lead unionization efforts, has faced internal criticism for being more concerned with consolidating power than addressing union members’ needs. A new settlement could now see him voted out.

• Wayfair CEO tells employees the company is profitable once again — but to expect long hours and ‘blending work and life’
• Leaked audio: Google CEO says company could have handled layoffs better, but ‘if we didn’t act, it would have been a worse decision down the line’
• Former head of Facebook DEI efforts, Barbara Furlow-Smiles, admits she embezzled $4 million from the company
• These 5 trends will shape how consumers spend their money in 2024, according to the maker of Guinness and Smirnoff
• Americans could save $3.4 billion through a new rule preventing ‘exploitative’ fees when buying a new car, the FTC says
• Texas found startling amounts of a cancer-causing chemical in the air outside Houston. Nobody told the residents.
• ‘The end is coming for dirty energy’: Countries strike historic deal on fossil fuels in Dubai
• I showed up to a GOP congressman’s 16-minute Christmas party.
• Almost half of Gen Z think being financially compatible is more important than being physically attracted to their partner, survey finds
• Billionaire hedge fund boss Ken Griffin to pay Manhattan cathedral up to $164 million for air rights to build new skyscraper
• What it really means to work smarter, not harder
• We left Texas to move to France. Now we’re buying a shockingly affordable six-bedroom house straight out of a fairy tale.

• Putin speaks. The Russian president will hold his annual press conference ahead of the country’s presidential elections, which are set for March 2024.
• “The Crown” conclusion. The final six episodes of the hit series documenting Queen Elizabeth II’s life are getting released on Netflix today.
• Happy Birthday, Stan Smith! The tennis legend and namesake of the popular Adidas sneaker turns 77.

Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York City. Diamond Naga Siu, senior reporter, in San Diego. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York City.

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