| DISPATCH
Soft-landing in sight |
| Wages are ⏫. Unemployment is ⏬. The US jobs market is still on 🔥.
The US added 209,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, according to data out Friday. That was down from the prior month and short of expectations. Still, recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a job market that’s running hot. |
- The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% in June.
- The prime-age employment-population ratio, or the share of prime-age workers with a job, hit 80.9% in June, the highest since 2001.
- Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month on month and are up 4.4% on last year. Pay growth is now likely outpacing inflation.
- Four million people quit their jobs in May, down from the “Great Resignation” peak but still historically high.
- The monthly number of layoffs and discharges, at 1.6 million in May, remains low.
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| The data is likely to push the Fed to go back to hiking rates after a recent pause. It also puts a so-called soft landing for the economy firmly in view.
The dream scenario for the economy is to get inflation under control without a sharp spike in unemployment or a recession. So far, the job market has remained robust. We’ll get a better picture on inflation this coming week, when the consumer price index for June is released.
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