by Peter Zeihan on December 11, 2024

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Protesters have taken to the streets in Georgia after pro-Russian oligarch and head of the ruling Georgia Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, announced that Tbilisi would be ending its bid to join the EU.

Many Georgians saw the EU bid as a way to distance themselves from Russian influence, but the current government—which has strong ties to Moscow—has chosen to prioritize its own power over Georgian independence.  Russia would love to keep Georgia under its thumb for a few reasons, but its geography is in the driver seat. Georgia and its geography act as a key barrier against invasions through the Caucasus, and a limiter to Chechen expansion.

If Georgia exited Moscow’s orbit, Russia’s southern flank would be exposed. If Tbilisi joined the EU, Brussels (and, perhaps, NATO) would play a bigger role in one of Russia’s most traditionally restive regions. Russia can ill-afford to divert attention away from its war in Ukraine, and with Syria heating up, public unrest in Georgia is a low-cost, high-reward move to push Moscow to divert resources away from other theaters.

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