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Mind the gap

The current trajectory puts average global temperatures on track to increase by 3.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, more than twice the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees. Now, the UN’s new report says, even if these countries were to meet their goals for transitioning to renewable energy, it would only limit warming to an increase of 2.6 to 2.8 degrees. And yet the vast majority of countries are hardly curtailing their use of coal, oil, and natural gas at all. Meanwhile, global demand for electricity is on the rise.

Around the world, the UN report has been met with no small measure of anxiety. As Bill Hare, an environmental scientist and the CEO of the Berlin-based policy institute Climate Analytics, expressed it, “Governments are sleepwalking toward climate chaos.” The UN released the report just a few weeks before COP29, its annual climate summit—this year, in Azerbaijan, a major oil producer—where participating countries have failed to agree on a plan for wealthy countries to provide some US$1 trillion annually to help poorer countries transition from fossil fuels. What’s going wrong?

Rachel Cleetus is a researcher and the policy director in the climate and energy program of the Union of Concerned Scientists. Cleetus says there are a lot of factors at play—including unexpected new demands for electricity that have arisen from more frequent heatwaves and the massive expansion of energy-hungry data centers. But the crux of the issue is in the power sector itself—which now far outpaces any other as a source of greenhouse gases. And the dynamics shaping this sector are challenging: Fossil-fuel companies continue pushing to build power plants that rely on coal, oil, and natural gas—while renewable-energy plants don’t yet have the capacity to transmit electricity to where demand is highest, or to store the excess energy they produce …

• “The harsh reality is: There’s been extraordinary growth in renewable-energy capacity—notably in China—but around the world, we’re still increasing our use of fossil fuels. Many countries in Asia are building new power plants that run on coal, for instance, while the U.S. has increased its production of oil and natural gas. So even if we keep up our current pace of adopting renewable energy, there’s still going to be a net growth in greenhouse-gas emissions”
• “A major political challenge to emissions reductions comes from the prevalence of the idea that we have to choose between economic growth or clean energy—that it’s zero-sum. It’s not true: Economic growth is not dependent on fossil fuels; economic growth is dependent on energy—and energy doesn’t have to come from fossil fuels.”
• “The money [to help poorer countries transition to clean energy] is there if the political will is. During the pandemic, wealthier countries were able to come up with a lot of money very quickly to support their own economies. And in their budgets, many Western countries are already giving public subsidies to fossil-fuel companies.”

You’re not alone. Millions of others do, too—but you don’t have to stay this way. BetterHelp therapists specialize in helping clients overcome negative thinking, build positive habits, and thrive.

The Tribe

While it may not yet be clear how much influence either Trump Jr.’s stated views or Rubio’s established tendencies will have in the new administration, there’s one country where those tendencies may hold sway: Cuba. Not least because Trump Sr. shares Rubio’s view of Cuba policy: In his first term, Trump reversed Barack Obama’s steps toward normalizing economic and diplomatic relations with the country.

Rubio comes from the world of conservative Miami politics, where fierce opposition to Cuba’s autocratic government is virtually a way of life. In the Cuban writer Carlos Manuel Álvarez’s 2022 book The Tribe, he offers a view into how Cubans—those who’ve left and those who’ve stayed—think of that government. Very few feel sympathetic toward the regime, Álvarez says, though there’s less unanimity on what to do about it—including on Rubio’s view in favor of strenuous economic sanctions. Still, in Cuba itself, The Tribe follows how people of virtually every political persuasion have recently come together in the San Isidro Movement to oppose the Cuban government’s regime of censorship.

—Gustav Jönsson

• To save costs, the U.K.’s armed forces will decommission five ships, 31 helicopters, and 47 drones: “… the fact that Defence either can’t crew them or is prepared to cut them to make very modest savings over five years, is an indication of just how tight resources must be in the [ministry] right now.” European countries have been trying to improve their military capabilities since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—but have been constrained by their worsening budget problems.
• Four men in California have been arrested for fraud, having claimed a bear damaged three luxury cars—and supplied their insurance company with a fuzzy video of this bear rummaging through a Rolls Royce. The fraud? According to the California Department of Insurance, “… the investigation determined the bear was actually a person in a bear costume.” Executing a search warrant, local police found the costume in the suspects’ home.
• A stolen portrait of Winston Churchill, the “Roaring Lion,” has been restored to the Fairmont Chateau Laurier in Ottawa: “Little is known about the man who was released on bail shortly after his arrest or how he allegedly removed and replaced the ‘Roaring Lion’ with a cheap fake. Details from that bail hearing are covered by a standard publication ban that covers evidence presented ahead of a possible trial.”

• From Beverly Hills, California, what looks most significant in business, technology, and culture? The Future Party knows.You can, too, in five minutes a day. Their newsletter is free—sign up here.

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