| Within a few days, we’ll finally know: Harris or Trump. We’ve asked our own tame American correspondent Brooks many times who will win, and still now he refuses to give a prediction. It’s close, in other words.
I resonated quite strongly with Steven Sidley’s take on how some of his best friends are Trump supporters. I, too, have some very good friends who are very much indoctrinated into Planet Trump. For the record, I also have friends who tend to be equally pro-Harris. But for the former, I’ve long since given up trying to peel back any logical reason behind their loyalty to the Republican nominee. It might at this point have something to do with a masculine nostalgia I must have missed during PE class at school. Who knows?
What I do know is that I spend a lot of time explaining what a Trump presidency would mean for me, from the outside, in one of the “shithole” countries. For my American friends, they are almost entirely motivated by economic policies orbiting Trump. For me, my judgement rests both in the social and foreign policy spheres.
So what does Trump mean for South Africa, or indeed the continent? Enter speculation land right here:
We know that he has vowed a near-certain global trade war. A 60% tariff hike on Chinese imports and a near-universal jump on the European Union as well will trigger a major economic tug of war between Beijing and Trump Tower. With us in the middle. Given SA is borderline fetishising Russian influence at this point, we might already have locked ourselves out of American influence. Agoa is looking shakier than Schabir Shaik at his parole medical board hearing. All of this is bad for our economy.
The apocalyptic end of things could see a significant weakening of the dollar, and potentially even a decrease in US GDP. America, as we know it, will have irrevocably severed itself from the mantle upon which it has sat since the Berlin Wall fell down.
South Africa could be economically cut adrift, left knocking on the Kremlin’s door for scraps that they can ill-afford to hand out, while inflation steadily climbs. These things might happen anyway, but in Planet Trump, we’d be putting rocket fuel in the dumpster fire.
In terms of global security, Africa’s strongmen will be the chief players between Trump and Beijing, both of whom will be fighting each other for African minerals that are only increasing in demand exponentially.
This might happen in a Harris presidency as well, but with Trump, his track record in his first presidency has shown a strong inclination to use military solutions to difficult problems in Africa. Drone strikes, raids, extrajudicial killings. Anything’s easier than wielding soft power.
Outside of Africa, Ukraine will become so front-loaded with military aid before Biden leaves the White House, that it will be fighting Russia without significant US support thereafter. This winter could be decisive on that front.
So no, aside from his egregious social policies, Planet Trump is just plain bad news for anyone in South Africa. The only positive will be the polished egos of the unevolved boet, roaming the savannas of Joburg and other cities with a newfound swagger that they were right after all. |
