Economics/Class Relations

Data Summary – Why I’m Betting Against The Markets & Recession Warnings Ahead For 2022/2023

By Dean Brooke, Rogue Economics

Equities & housing display key bearish forms and the economic data is compounding with recession warnings to produce dire forecasts for the years ahead.

Introduction

I intend this article to be a summary of thoughts going into what I believe may be a pretty baked-in recession. This article will be updated regularly even if the markets do get away with it in the end.

It’s always tempting, in any sort of field, to become a one-trick pony and just stick to any sort of line without any reasoning and without recognising that things always change.

I’ve been there and made this mistake quite a few times but ultimately, my own successes have always come precisely from my abilities to do volte-face when the needs of a particular situation command it.

Markets are also notoriously difficult to time (in fact, most professionals will advise people against trying this) and, especially if you’re just used to following an abstract trend, you probably won’t be looking at broader statistics or data.

What I’m going to try to do in this piece is put together a summary of my case against the markets and put some actual concrete information forward about why we should not be taking undue risks in the markets and why, if we’re not willing to go short or bet against the markets, we should at least be moving defensively or stockpiling cash so that we can take advantage of any serious downturn.

Index Funds Are Showing Very Bearish Technical Outlines

To explain this point, we will look at the NASDAQ100 ETF during the Dotcom bust during 2001 when the stock markets collapsed due to an overexposure to shaky tech companies.

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1 reply »

  1. So….

    I wrote this oooon…. about 24th April.

    How did I do?

    This will be updated today if anyone’s interested.

    Full disclosure, I have taken profit on my shorts & volatility positions because I believe the market will go up for a while here and yes I’ve flipped long but *this is temporary* and we’ll have a period which goes like “THANK GOODNESS THAT AWFUL CRASH IS OVER” before a real rug-pull later on this year because, fundamentally, *nothing has changed*.

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